Not too bad a day
Given the large drop in U.S. indeces, I think ours did ok. Trading ended today with the PSEi down by 54.72 points with total trade value at only the Php2.6B mark. Not much of a sell off. That tells me that there was a hopeful sentiment in the market amidst all the pessimism generated abroad.
It wasn't all bad as 26 stocks gained, 75 declined and 42 remained unchanged.
PSEi general outlook still good
Citisec, my favorite online trading company, told the inquirer today that their target for the year end is our index at 4200. It was initially targeted to be at that level by July. That means the outlook for the year is still good. But for someone like me, who feels like he's holding on to a battered portfolio, that seems like an awfully long way off. Nonetheless, considering the outlook of foreign markets, the prospect of positive growth for ours is enough to keep me from complaining.
Gas rates to go down!
The big three are to bring gas rates down by P.50. Much thanks, I believe, to the rising Philippine Peso.
Calling domestic heroes
We're supposed to hear a lot of corporate news this year about their performance. Where is that market moving news? Will we hear corporate news that will drive our market up? I've heard some news come out, and they've mostly been good. Profits, profits, profits. It seems more like a question of "how much?" rather than a question of whether there was any. The worst news I've heard so far isn't really bad at all. Some have reported profits lower than projected. But I have yet to hear about any major company that has profits lower than last year or that has negative income.
Some more recent notable earnings reports
Philex, a heavy favorite among mining companies, reported a 63% increase in profit. (PX closed today at Php9/sh up from Php8.80/sh yesterday)
RCBC, reported a 56% increase in net income. (RCB closed today @ Php18, unchanged from yesterday)
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
More mixed headlines and a huge drop in the U.S. market
Mixed headlines from inquirer.net
"Top Stories
Higher food prices push up inflation
Gov’t eyes energy VAT rebate coupons
Arroyo orders implementation of power ‘open access’
Old ideas given new push at energy summit
Capital investments up 9.3% in ’07
Good weather seen boosting rice, corn production in Q1
NFA to issue P8B worth of bonds
Globe Telecom eyes local borrowing for capex
PAL earmarks P3.5B for wide-body fleet renovation
Wellex to develop 3,700-ha mine site in Surigao"
I doubt that there's enough happiness in there to translate into any big gains in our market today. In light of the drop in U.S. indices, today's trading is looking to be rather glim. I hope I'm wrong about this, but the pre-opening bids I looked at showed lower offers than bids! It looks like a big tumble is coming.
CNBC retorts that there's no super tuesday for stocks.
U.S. indices:
DJIA -370.03 (-2.93%)
Nasdaq -73.28 (-3.08%)
S&P500 -44.18 (-3.20%)
"Top Stories
Higher food prices push up inflation
Gov’t eyes energy VAT rebate coupons
Arroyo orders implementation of power ‘open access’
Old ideas given new push at energy summit
Capital investments up 9.3% in ’07
Good weather seen boosting rice, corn production in Q1
NFA to issue P8B worth of bonds
Globe Telecom eyes local borrowing for capex
PAL earmarks P3.5B for wide-body fleet renovation
Wellex to develop 3,700-ha mine site in Surigao"
I doubt that there's enough happiness in there to translate into any big gains in our market today. In light of the drop in U.S. indices, today's trading is looking to be rather glim. I hope I'm wrong about this, but the pre-opening bids I looked at showed lower offers than bids! It looks like a big tumble is coming.
CNBC retorts that there's no super tuesday for stocks.
U.S. indices:
DJIA -370.03 (-2.93%)
Nasdaq -73.28 (-3.08%)
S&P500 -44.18 (-3.20%)
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
ph stocks track U.S. stocks while the peso's outlook gets even sunnier, notwithstanding todays blip
Tracking the U.S. stocks
Prior to the trading hours at the Philippine Stock Exchange Tue (Feb. 5,2008), the DJIA was down 108.03 points, the Nasdaq down 30.51 points and the S&P down by 14.60 points. Then I watched how our market tracked the drop in U.S. prices. The Psei slipped about 39 points, ending around four straight days of increase. Gainers outnumbered losers 71 to 32 while 50 remained unchanged. I remember some people telling me that our market is immature and easily subject to rumors and the "hot tip." While I don't have any first hand knowledge of that, my theory that Philippine Investors are watching the U.S. market all the more closely these days and taking cues from it, above all else, seems to be getting more credible everyday.
Mixed business news
RCBC came in positive as "Net profit rose 56 percent to P3.21 billion from P2.05 billion in 2006. This beat the bank's net profit target of P2.5 billion." Inquirer.net (RCB closed @ 18.50/sh)
Globe shared its pessimism highlighting the strong peso, rising oil prices, and an economic slowdown in the US could as factors that could weaken consumer spending. Globe's numbers couldn't have been the source of their pessimism as "Globe reported after trading hours Monday a 13-percent increase in 2007 net profit to P13.3 billion on record revenue. It ended last year with 20.3 million cellphone subscribers, up 30 percent from 2006."inquirer.net
(Globe is a recommended buy both in the fundamental and technical analysis of Citisec. GLO closed @ p1600/sh)
Meralco: Our dear president was reported to be pushing for Meralco to be made to lower its rates. I had been doing some selling of MER lately and have been kicking myself until I read this. As of this morning citisec pointed out that MER has been outdoing the index over the past three months and is looking to do much better thanks to higher rates. As I don't like to underestimate the persuasiveness of our President, I think citisec should modify their recommendation. I recall one of my advisers telling me that Meralco has the public interest medling with it all the time, hence he believes it will never really be as profitable as ordinary private entities. (MER closed @ 81.50/sh)
Sunny Outlook for the Peso
The peso suffered a blip thanks to our entertaining world of politics. Yet, this has no reference to the long term outlook. Just yesterday, Citigroup was quoted as projecting the Peso to enter the thirties by hitting Php39 to a single greenback within this quarter. The same bank projects Php35 to $1 within the year. The peso closed today at 40.52.
This sunny outlook, casts shadows on our exports, BPO, OFWs and everyone who earns in dollars. Yet, today the BSP highlighted the silver lining. According the BSP, many Filipinos were better off thanks to the stronger peso. One very obvious thing is that with more buying power, we as a country were spared a bit from the steep increase in the world oil price. Carrying the logic further, Filipinos will benefit from cheaper imports.
Prior to the trading hours at the Philippine Stock Exchange Tue (Feb. 5,2008), the DJIA was down 108.03 points, the Nasdaq down 30.51 points and the S&P down by 14.60 points. Then I watched how our market tracked the drop in U.S. prices. The Psei slipped about 39 points, ending around four straight days of increase. Gainers outnumbered losers 71 to 32 while 50 remained unchanged. I remember some people telling me that our market is immature and easily subject to rumors and the "hot tip." While I don't have any first hand knowledge of that, my theory that Philippine Investors are watching the U.S. market all the more closely these days and taking cues from it, above all else, seems to be getting more credible everyday.
Mixed business news
RCBC came in positive as "Net profit rose 56 percent to P3.21 billion from P2.05 billion in 2006. This beat the bank's net profit target of P2.5 billion." Inquirer.net (RCB closed @ 18.50/sh)
Globe shared its pessimism highlighting the strong peso, rising oil prices, and an economic slowdown in the US could as factors that could weaken consumer spending. Globe's numbers couldn't have been the source of their pessimism as "Globe reported after trading hours Monday a 13-percent increase in 2007 net profit to P13.3 billion on record revenue. It ended last year with 20.3 million cellphone subscribers, up 30 percent from 2006."inquirer.net
(Globe is a recommended buy both in the fundamental and technical analysis of Citisec. GLO closed @ p1600/sh)
Meralco: Our dear president was reported to be pushing for Meralco to be made to lower its rates. I had been doing some selling of MER lately and have been kicking myself until I read this. As of this morning citisec pointed out that MER has been outdoing the index over the past three months and is looking to do much better thanks to higher rates. As I don't like to underestimate the persuasiveness of our President, I think citisec should modify their recommendation. I recall one of my advisers telling me that Meralco has the public interest medling with it all the time, hence he believes it will never really be as profitable as ordinary private entities. (MER closed @ 81.50/sh)
Sunny Outlook for the Peso
The peso suffered a blip thanks to our entertaining world of politics. Yet, this has no reference to the long term outlook. Just yesterday, Citigroup was quoted as projecting the Peso to enter the thirties by hitting Php39 to a single greenback within this quarter. The same bank projects Php35 to $1 within the year. The peso closed today at 40.52.
This sunny outlook, casts shadows on our exports, BPO, OFWs and everyone who earns in dollars. Yet, today the BSP highlighted the silver lining. According the BSP, many Filipinos were better off thanks to the stronger peso. One very obvious thing is that with more buying power, we as a country were spared a bit from the steep increase in the world oil price. Carrying the logic further, Filipinos will benefit from cheaper imports.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Will January dictate the pace our market for the year?
I've read that January is usually an indication of how the market will perform for the year. While it may look like that for the coming months, I hope that isn't the case for the entire year.
Psei
Our Philippine Stock Exchange Index, which everyone still calls the Phisix, went pretty low this month of January considering the highs it had hit last year. That leaves us now watching it consolidate between 2900 and 3900, but hanging closer to 2900 for the month. At that position, there's lot of us sitting in the sidelines, who entered while the market was at the 3400/3500 position wondering whether we should sell at that when it returns to that point.
With tons of good news on the local side, I'm more keen on waiting things out, save for some tiny trades here and there to pass the time.
Psei
Our Philippine Stock Exchange Index, which everyone still calls the Phisix, went pretty low this month of January considering the highs it had hit last year. That leaves us now watching it consolidate between 2900 and 3900, but hanging closer to 2900 for the month. At that position, there's lot of us sitting in the sidelines, who entered while the market was at the 3400/3500 position wondering whether we should sell at that when it returns to that point.
With tons of good news on the local side, I'm more keen on waiting things out, save for some tiny trades here and there to pass the time.
Earning's report to dictate market's pace -inquirer
I'm not so sure I agree with the Inquirer on that point. While, I see these reports to be a major factor, I think the whole world is still hung up on the woes from the U.S.
They way I see it is that reports below investor's expectations can drag share prices down, yet better than expected reports can only push prices up if the good mood in the U.S. markets coincides with it.
They way I see it is that reports below investor's expectations can drag share prices down, yet better than expected reports can only push prices up if the good mood in the U.S. markets coincides with it.
3175 : a number to watch this week -tsupitero.com
"I'll be damned if the market heads back down below its short-term support at 3175 this coming week. If it does, I would suggest to immediately sell your long positions as the market will be vulnerable to lower low."
quoted from Miko Sayo's weekly analysis of the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi a.k.a. Phisix) @ tsupitero.com
In addition to pointing out that important number, tsupitero also said that:
-the short term trend is now up
-whether the medium term trend has turned up is uncertain
-market is approaching resistances at 3400-3500
quoted from Miko Sayo's weekly analysis of the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi a.k.a. Phisix) @ tsupitero.com
In addition to pointing out that important number, tsupitero also said that:
-the short term trend is now up
-whether the medium term trend has turned up is uncertain
-market is approaching resistances at 3400-3500
Sunday, February 3, 2008
in the spotlight: U.S. Markets ;
Under the present circumstances, looking to the U.S. market for an indication of where our market will go seems like a better idea than before.
More predicatble market movements
If we know where people look, there's more chance we know what they are thinking. That is an advantage of the American Credit Crisis. Its potential to affect world economies has caused traders and investors the world over to watch the U.S. closely. Over the past week, it appears that world markets have been taking their cue from the U.S. Theoretically, this makes activity a bit more predictable.
The world hasn't decoupled
Mr. "Bearbull", Ron Nathan of the Philippine Daily Inquirer is among those who believe that the world has not decoupled from the U.S. Stock Markets. He mentioned it in his article published last 29th.
It appears that the world is united in believing that if the U.S. slows, the world will slow-albeit relatively less for the developing world.
Analysis
Applying this theory of mine, I noticed a headline on CNBC.com, referring to a good week in the U.S., that read: Stocks Have a Super Week
Therefore, I still think we'll see that downward pressure I blogged about before, at the start of the coming week. However, my overall sentiment is that there's a good chance that any slow and downward movement will be overshadowed by an overall rise in Philippine Stock prices next week.
More predicatble market movements
If we know where people look, there's more chance we know what they are thinking. That is an advantage of the American Credit Crisis. Its potential to affect world economies has caused traders and investors the world over to watch the U.S. closely. Over the past week, it appears that world markets have been taking their cue from the U.S. Theoretically, this makes activity a bit more predictable.
The world hasn't decoupled
Mr. "Bearbull", Ron Nathan of the Philippine Daily Inquirer is among those who believe that the world has not decoupled from the U.S. Stock Markets. He mentioned it in his article published last 29th.
It appears that the world is united in believing that if the U.S. slows, the world will slow-albeit relatively less for the developing world.
Analysis
Applying this theory of mine, I noticed a headline on CNBC.com, referring to a good week in the U.S., that read: Stocks Have a Super Week
Therefore, I still think we'll see that downward pressure I blogged about before, at the start of the coming week. However, my overall sentiment is that there's a good chance that any slow and downward movement will be overshadowed by an overall rise in Philippine Stock prices next week.
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