Tsupitero of tsupitero.com believes that there's a chance for our market to begin a strong rally and the indicator is if the PSEi hold above 2632 for this week. He had a fancy chart on his site that I pretended to understand and he said something about a white candle. Anyhow, his magic has been hitting the bullseye so he has my attention.
Though Technical Analysis (TA) isn't really my cup of tea, I know that a significant part of the market relies on TA. I'd like to know what they're thinking.
Friday, September 5, 2008
not quite the rally i expected
The Philippine Daily Inquirer noted that buying may have slowed do to the coming inflation data. Even after the large drop in U.S. oil and the big surge in U.S. stocks, we only saw the PSEi jump past the 2750 mark, up only about fifty points from two days before.
Not quite the rally i expected.
Not quite the rally i expected.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
oil drops over $8.00 to $108; PSEi likely to rally
We're likely to see the PSEi rally and track the expected large gains in the U.S. stock market, the dow currently at +2%, S&P at +1.85% and Nasdaq +1.36% in early trading, due to oil dropping over $8.00 to settle at the $108 level. The drop is reported by CNBC to be due to the easing concerns over hurricane gustav.
The PSEi closed at 2708.25 monday, Sept. 2, 2008.
The PSEi closed at 2708.25 monday, Sept. 2, 2008.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
here come the "ber" months
The forecasts for the end of 2008 have not improved. But for the meantime, we are enjoying a reprieve in the rise of commodities and even some rollbacks in oil. These are great things for our economy as a whole.
As the "ber" months approach, what can we expect from the PSEi? Even the most sophisticated analysts cannot say with certainty. Tsupitero of tsupitero.com com sees the PSEi is in somewhat of a state of limbo.
With that in mind, I'm still looking for good opportunities to buy. Compared to last year, many of Philippine stocks are discounted. Given that investors are spooked, and money has been consistently flying to safer havens like bonds, there is little attention being given to equities.
Why do I like to against the flow in times like this? Well, as long as we keep investing manageable amounts that we're willing to leave over the long run, we can ride out the dips and cash in on growth which can be reasonably expected over the long term. Notice, our economy is still growing, albeit slower than last year. Many companies are posting lower gains than the previous years, but GAINS nonetheless.
As the "ber" months approach, what can we expect from the PSEi? Even the most sophisticated analysts cannot say with certainty. Tsupitero of tsupitero.com com sees the PSEi is in somewhat of a state of limbo.
With that in mind, I'm still looking for good opportunities to buy. Compared to last year, many of Philippine stocks are discounted. Given that investors are spooked, and money has been consistently flying to safer havens like bonds, there is little attention being given to equities.
Why do I like to against the flow in times like this? Well, as long as we keep investing manageable amounts that we're willing to leave over the long run, we can ride out the dips and cash in on growth which can be reasonably expected over the long term. Notice, our economy is still growing, albeit slower than last year. Many companies are posting lower gains than the previous years, but GAINS nonetheless.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
taking a breath
Low trade volume over the first two trading days of this week indicates that the market is taking a breath.
Tuspitero of tsupitero.com said last monday (18th) that he believed we'll likely see sideways movement or a correction. He discounts the likelihood of a strong rally before either of those happens.
As we've seen some correction already over the past two days, it looks like he's right on the money this time. Whether the PSEi eventually ends up rallying up and beyond 2900 or comes down below 2500, in the meantime we've got a moment to decide where to place our bets.
I don't bother crunching numbers much but considering the world economy and the mixed numbers as regards corporate earnings, I'm still bearish. But who knows, as the silver linning of the slowing world economy is emerging to be the drop in demand for oil we there may be a few more surprises in store for us.
Tuspitero of tsupitero.com said last monday (18th) that he believed we'll likely see sideways movement or a correction. He discounts the likelihood of a strong rally before either of those happens.
As we've seen some correction already over the past two days, it looks like he's right on the money this time. Whether the PSEi eventually ends up rallying up and beyond 2900 or comes down below 2500, in the meantime we've got a moment to decide where to place our bets.
I don't bother crunching numbers much but considering the world economy and the mixed numbers as regards corporate earnings, I'm still bearish. But who knows, as the silver linning of the slowing world economy is emerging to be the drop in demand for oil we there may be a few more surprises in store for us.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
OIL and the WORLD ECONOMY: is it a chicken and egg game?
Pablo Gorondi, a writer for the Associated Press noted that the oil price is going down and will be facing additional pressure because of the slowing world economy.
Wasn't it the rising price of oil that was slowing the growth of the world economy? So which caused which? Was it some kind of a returning domino effect? hehe... At any rate Oil fell as low as $111.78. That's more than enough for a few more sighs of relief and smile to top it off. :)
Wasn't it the rising price of oil that was slowing the growth of the world economy? So which caused which? Was it some kind of a returning domino effect? hehe... At any rate Oil fell as low as $111.78. That's more than enough for a few more sighs of relief and smile to top it off. :)
GEO: What's up with "the people's stock".
The much loved, hyped and traded GEO was dubbed as "the people's stock" on the blogosphere. It was popular, affordable and easy to buy and sell. Why was it so loved and where is it now?
Why was it so loved?
Well, as GEO would hover around the Php2.00 to Php3.00 level it was really easy to buy. At that level, most brokerages would let you buy it by the thousands. So with only a minimum of Php2k to Php3k you could already be trading it actively. The rise of internet trading had plenty to do with it. In addition, it would fall daily in the top 20 most traded stocks.
Where is it now?
Last close: Php0.88; It didn't even make it to the top 20 most traded. Even during its glory days at "the people's stock" that company wasn't pulling anything out of the ground. The latest buzz is that they inked an exploration deal with listed Nihao Mineral Resources and Chinese mining firm Jiangxi Rare Earth and Rare Metals Tungsten Group. No details have been released.
A common sense reason to buy it now
If you choose to be a contrarian it would be better to buy into this stock now while no one is looking. The moment they start digging, it's price will start rising. "Buy low and sell high" they say. This looks low to me at Php0.88. Note though that this has recently gone down as low as Php0.60+.
But then again, why buy into this company. If you haven't already, give it plenty of thought before you do. I direct this post more to those that love trading it already.
It's well to note for everyone that the fact that mining still has handsome prospects in the Philippines should direct us to have even a part of our portfolios in mining. This is a happy candidate. It also helps a lot for our peace of mind that the Puno's have a hand in this cookie jar.
Why was it so loved?
Well, as GEO would hover around the Php2.00 to Php3.00 level it was really easy to buy. At that level, most brokerages would let you buy it by the thousands. So with only a minimum of Php2k to Php3k you could already be trading it actively. The rise of internet trading had plenty to do with it. In addition, it would fall daily in the top 20 most traded stocks.
Where is it now?
Last close: Php0.88; It didn't even make it to the top 20 most traded. Even during its glory days at "the people's stock" that company wasn't pulling anything out of the ground. The latest buzz is that they inked an exploration deal with listed Nihao Mineral Resources and Chinese mining firm Jiangxi Rare Earth and Rare Metals Tungsten Group. No details have been released.
A common sense reason to buy it now
If you choose to be a contrarian it would be better to buy into this stock now while no one is looking. The moment they start digging, it's price will start rising. "Buy low and sell high" they say. This looks low to me at Php0.88. Note though that this has recently gone down as low as Php0.60+.
But then again, why buy into this company. If you haven't already, give it plenty of thought before you do. I direct this post more to those that love trading it already.
It's well to note for everyone that the fact that mining still has handsome prospects in the Philippines should direct us to have even a part of our portfolios in mining. This is a happy candidate. It also helps a lot for our peace of mind that the Puno's have a hand in this cookie jar.
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