Although total trades were valued at only around Php2.5B, I'm glad to see the overall performance of the PSEi to be in the green. (PSEi +19.21 on April 24, 2008 @ 2,844.02)
The question on everybody's minds must be: Is the market bottoming out?
Technical Analysis probably won't give a definite answer at this point in time. However, my gut feel says the bottoming out is starting. Why? Well, first, the main mover of global markets is still the U.S. stock market. Second, there seems to be a growing concensus that the worst is over for U.S. lending giants. Third, one of the greatest drivers of investor anxiety were the large losses of American Banks. If its over, there will be sighs of relief all around.
While that isn't really air tight logic, neither is the logic of most investors. Given that, most market movement is based on similar thinking. Now, to see if I can scrounge around for more cash and bet on this bottom. :)
Friday, April 25, 2008
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
little happiness over Philippine Stocks
Unexciting year
2008 has proved to be rather unexciting. Everyone is gloomy. Business is slowing down, oil is getting more expensive, and the dollar is falling. A more curious addition to the sad news is that food prices are going up.
Little upward movement
What I find very sad about our market's performance for 2008 is that even when all the good news of growing profits came in, our stocks tracked global markets and didn't really move up.
Foreign Influence
Domestic demand seems to be stable but since foreign buying accounts for about half of the activity in our stock market, there is still an umbilical cord to foreign markets. Generally, the world has been reacting to wall street and wall street's lead has been downard.
Unconventional Wisdom
Still, I remember my favorite quote from Warren Bufett: "Be greedy when everyone is fearful and be fearful when everyone is greedy". Follwoing that I'd still avoid investing in Philippine Real Estate and keep adding positions in Philippine stocks. If I could, I would even purchase U.S. Real Estate at foreclosure sales. :)
2008 has proved to be rather unexciting. Everyone is gloomy. Business is slowing down, oil is getting more expensive, and the dollar is falling. A more curious addition to the sad news is that food prices are going up.
Little upward movement
What I find very sad about our market's performance for 2008 is that even when all the good news of growing profits came in, our stocks tracked global markets and didn't really move up.
Foreign Influence
Domestic demand seems to be stable but since foreign buying accounts for about half of the activity in our stock market, there is still an umbilical cord to foreign markets. Generally, the world has been reacting to wall street and wall street's lead has been downard.
Unconventional Wisdom
Still, I remember my favorite quote from Warren Bufett: "Be greedy when everyone is fearful and be fearful when everyone is greedy". Follwoing that I'd still avoid investing in Philippine Real Estate and keep adding positions in Philippine stocks. If I could, I would even purchase U.S. Real Estate at foreclosure sales. :)
Thursday, April 10, 2008
imported bear meat
When the U.S. stock market slides, our will slide. Same old same old. -20 yesterday, around the same today. Not quite what I expected for the week. I thought those bulls were right around the corner. Maybe they're just gathering momentum.
On the bright side, Tsupitero says it doesn't look so glum right now. The numbers never lie and they are no longer pointing downwards. Are they looking up? Maybe. We don't know for sure. I guess its time to place new bets.
If I'm to listen to my gut feel, I say we'll see the index hit 2700 before we have any serious bull runs that will breach last year's highs.
On the bright side, Tsupitero says it doesn't look so glum right now. The numbers never lie and they are no longer pointing downwards. Are they looking up? Maybe. We don't know for sure. I guess its time to place new bets.
If I'm to listen to my gut feel, I say we'll see the index hit 2700 before we have any serious bull runs that will breach last year's highs.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Paxys keeps fighting
PAX is one stock that many would like to forget. It figured in many portfolios during 2007 but performed miserably towards the end of the year. These days, it is languishing at around the price of Php3.00/sh. Twelve months ago it looked ready to hit ten times that price.
Aside from the one-two punch of the falling dollar and the slowing U.S. economy that hit the BPO industry as a whole, PAXYS faced problems of its own. The long and the short is that its revenues failed to hit targets miserably and there was little or nothing to give investors a reason to hang on to its stock.
Just recently though, they announced the formation of a joint venture, implying better business to come. The details are a bit sketchy for me, I have yet to review it to figure out what I think of it. For the meantime, Citisec thinks its positive and is busy changing their Target Price for PAX - presumably for the better.
Aside from the one-two punch of the falling dollar and the slowing U.S. economy that hit the BPO industry as a whole, PAXYS faced problems of its own. The long and the short is that its revenues failed to hit targets miserably and there was little or nothing to give investors a reason to hang on to its stock.
Just recently though, they announced the formation of a joint venture, implying better business to come. The details are a bit sketchy for me, I have yet to review it to figure out what I think of it. For the meantime, Citisec thinks its positive and is busy changing their Target Price for PAX - presumably for the better.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
sideways today
After the three day weekend, April 3 was a day of sideways movement. The PSEi closed at 2,981.12, which was down by only 1.92 points from the last trading day.
While we saw the bears flexing their muscles late last week, they seemed to be tentative today. At some point I saw the market down by over fifty points but then the next moment it would be up again.
I expected the market to keep heading down towards 2700 or 2500, at which point I was preparing to take a few more positions. However, it seems that the bears are looking like they want to take a summer break. I'm starting to get more excited.
While we saw the bears flexing their muscles late last week, they seemed to be tentative today. At some point I saw the market down by over fifty points but then the next moment it would be up again.
I expected the market to keep heading down towards 2700 or 2500, at which point I was preparing to take a few more positions. However, it seems that the bears are looking like they want to take a summer break. I'm starting to get more excited.
Friday, April 4, 2008
the bears awake
The bears woke up after a short slumber. The Psei closed April 4 at 2983.94, 51.77 points lower than the previous day's close. All but one (BDO) of the top traded stock for the day went down. BDO remained unchanged at Php53.50.
The Philippine Stock Exchange seems to have been under the bears control for too long, but the activity during the early part of the week tells me that its possible that we'll be hearing more than just a strong dissent from the bulls.
The Philippine Stock Exchange seems to have been under the bears control for too long, but the activity during the early part of the week tells me that its possible that we'll be hearing more than just a strong dissent from the bulls.
taking a breather from the gains
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index had been on the rise, finally breaking that 3000 level after languishing below it too long for comfort.
The PSEi closed April 3 slightly above the 3000 level.
BDO, MER and MWC took most of my attention.
MER
Although MER fell from its glorious high of 114 within the past 52 weeks, it seems to be doing much better than its counterparts. I've always wondered if hot summer months make life better for a utility company like meralco. MER closed April 3 at Php81.50.
MWC
I only decided to check this company out after my girlfriend told me to buy it based on a random thought. I did some research and found it suited my preferences for stocks. The long and short was that I bought it at the 14 level and sold happily at around 17.75. MWC closed April 3 at Php18.25
BDO
We often refer to this as "Henry Sy's Bank" or "SM bank." I know someone who won't buy this stock solely because she doesn't personally like the ol' man Henry. I like it because I think they do their business well. Whether I agree with them, like them, or totally abhor the personalities behind that bank, I have to admit they are good and its obvious that they are good. BDO closed April 3 at Php53.50
The PSEi closed April 3 slightly above the 3000 level.
BDO, MER and MWC took most of my attention.
MER
Although MER fell from its glorious high of 114 within the past 52 weeks, it seems to be doing much better than its counterparts. I've always wondered if hot summer months make life better for a utility company like meralco. MER closed April 3 at Php81.50.
MWC
I only decided to check this company out after my girlfriend told me to buy it based on a random thought. I did some research and found it suited my preferences for stocks. The long and short was that I bought it at the 14 level and sold happily at around 17.75. MWC closed April 3 at Php18.25
BDO
We often refer to this as "Henry Sy's Bank" or "SM bank." I know someone who won't buy this stock solely because she doesn't personally like the ol' man Henry. I like it because I think they do their business well. Whether I agree with them, like them, or totally abhor the personalities behind that bank, I have to admit they are good and its obvious that they are good. BDO closed April 3 at Php53.50
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