A few surprises this week... PSE still up, Clinton stays in the race, BIR collects higher than expected taxes (+12.6% 1Q08), a "fusion man" flies over the alps.
The PHILIPPINES STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX managed to end the week with a record of eight successive days of gains. Trading volume today (Friday - May 16, 2008) was at Php3.38B. Even though the rally lasted eight days, it looked rather weak to me. If it won't continue through the next week or speed up, I will become even more bearish.
Earnings reports for 1Q08 income as against last year's were mixed. Here's a few:
MBT income down 16%
SECB up 10.3%
FPH down 79%
RLC up 19.8%
ABS down 13.6%
Friday, May 16, 2008
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Oil and the fizzling the rally
The PSEi has been rising for six and a half days. Good reports of first quarter income encourage buying as they indicate which companies can weather the Global slowdown and even go against the flow.
Oil however, is still hogging the spotlight and I suspect it is the main reason the almost seven day rally isn't too strong. PSEi was at +12.5 this May 15, 2008 at 10:17 a.m. The brighter side of it is that we're rising notwithstanding the steady rise of crude prices.
Oil however, is still hogging the spotlight and I suspect it is the main reason the almost seven day rally isn't too strong. PSEi was at +12.5 this May 15, 2008 at 10:17 a.m. The brighter side of it is that we're rising notwithstanding the steady rise of crude prices.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
up, up and away?
After five straight days of going up, we haven't gone very high. The PSEi closed at 2849.29 on May 14, 2008. Value turnover was at respectable level of around Php3B.
Those numbers are a far cry from 3900 and Php5B average daily turnover at some months last year.
The rally is weaker than I hoped and I fear will not last until the end of the week. I hope I'm wrong.
Those numbers are a far cry from 3900 and Php5B average daily turnover at some months last year.
The rally is weaker than I hoped and I fear will not last until the end of the week. I hope I'm wrong.
Crisis = Opportunity for the Philippine Economy (non-stock post)
Food production is relatively easy for the Philippines. Why don't we feed the world's growing appetite for cereals? If we decouple food production from oil dependence and restore economies of scale to our farm estates, I think we have more than just a good chance.
One Two Punch
Receiving a one-two punch, our rising economy that boasted robust growth last year, is saddled with rising oil and food prices and everyone is wondering how to cope.
Higher Food Prices Can Be Good
I would like to suggest we consider the proposition that rising food prices presents an opportunity for the Philippines to assert one of its greatest potential competitive advantages. On the assumption, which I think is fair, that it is relatively easy to produce food in our country, we are faced with a huge economic opportunity.
The first key: Reducing Oil dependence for food production
I think the key to harnessing this advantage would be to find ways to produce the food with little or no need for petroleum products. If oil is not a cost or is minimal, we have a big advantage as against other producers as we will be able to sell at competitive prices with larger margins. After all, one of the main drivers of the food price is the oil price. Its effect is two fold. It affects the price as it is one of the costs of production. It also affects the price by encouraging the diversion of food supplies to transform them into biofuels as food is now a substitute for fuel.
Exploring Alternative Energy
As far as farms are concerned, nature makes available alternative energy sources with direct application like the sun, the wind and moving water.
Windmills for instance have long been used to create sufficient energy for industrially viable processes. That energy can be used for irrigation of inland fisheries or crop plantations, processing of sugar and, I imagine, there are much more.
Recognizing Our Distinct Advantage
While many countries can only dream of our rich natural resources, like fresh water and particularly fertile soil, we are busy turning them into subdivisions and golf courses.
The Next Key: Restoring Economies of Scale
It takes only common sense to understand the importance of economies of scale in any industry. I propose that we return the ability to achieve economies of scale for our farm estates by again permitting the ownership of large estates instead of always chopping them up in pursuit of the romantic idea behind the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Law. Globalization arrived after the CARL, its time for some change, we need to adapt.
A Better Future
I would much rather our country be known for food production than for domestic helpers, or a good source of people to answer phones. While I am grateful for these job opportunities that support millions of Filipinos, and which in turn float our economy, I have bigger hopes for our sons and daughters.
One Two Punch
Receiving a one-two punch, our rising economy that boasted robust growth last year, is saddled with rising oil and food prices and everyone is wondering how to cope.
Higher Food Prices Can Be Good
I would like to suggest we consider the proposition that rising food prices presents an opportunity for the Philippines to assert one of its greatest potential competitive advantages. On the assumption, which I think is fair, that it is relatively easy to produce food in our country, we are faced with a huge economic opportunity.
The first key: Reducing Oil dependence for food production
I think the key to harnessing this advantage would be to find ways to produce the food with little or no need for petroleum products. If oil is not a cost or is minimal, we have a big advantage as against other producers as we will be able to sell at competitive prices with larger margins. After all, one of the main drivers of the food price is the oil price. Its effect is two fold. It affects the price as it is one of the costs of production. It also affects the price by encouraging the diversion of food supplies to transform them into biofuels as food is now a substitute for fuel.
Exploring Alternative Energy
As far as farms are concerned, nature makes available alternative energy sources with direct application like the sun, the wind and moving water.
Windmills for instance have long been used to create sufficient energy for industrially viable processes. That energy can be used for irrigation of inland fisheries or crop plantations, processing of sugar and, I imagine, there are much more.
Recognizing Our Distinct Advantage
While many countries can only dream of our rich natural resources, like fresh water and particularly fertile soil, we are busy turning them into subdivisions and golf courses.
The Next Key: Restoring Economies of Scale
It takes only common sense to understand the importance of economies of scale in any industry. I propose that we return the ability to achieve economies of scale for our farm estates by again permitting the ownership of large estates instead of always chopping them up in pursuit of the romantic idea behind the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Law. Globalization arrived after the CARL, its time for some change, we need to adapt.
A Better Future
I would much rather our country be known for food production than for domestic helpers, or a good source of people to answer phones. While I am grateful for these job opportunities that support millions of Filipinos, and which in turn float our economy, I have bigger hopes for our sons and daughters.
Monday, May 12, 2008
upbeat market sentiment
A perusal of the Manila Bulletin today (May 12, 2008) reveals that there is an upbeat market sentiment for this week. Maybe the giant San Miguel Beer bottle on Ayala avenue right in front of the PSE has something to do with it.
After watching the market make a few huge steps down since April, it's nice to hear some bullish sentiments.
Tsupitero thinks any rally below the 3050 level is nothing more than a dead-cat bounce. I can't define what a dead cat bounce is but the name implies enough. We don't want that. Anyhow, I'm still betting on Philippine Stocks for '08 as a whole. Time will tell.
After watching the market make a few huge steps down since April, it's nice to hear some bullish sentiments.
Tsupitero thinks any rally below the 3050 level is nothing more than a dead-cat bounce. I can't define what a dead cat bounce is but the name implies enough. We don't want that. Anyhow, I'm still betting on Philippine Stocks for '08 as a whole. Time will tell.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
