Tuesday, August 11, 2009

When recession turns into recovery

Will the U.S. economy's recovery be good for the Philippines?

The Philippine economy performed well during the crisis, will it do even better during the recovery? I would hazard a resounding yes. Here's why.

1. We'll see an increase in demand for minerals
2. Our Business Process Outsourcing Industry will remain strong
3. OFW remittances will keep on growing

Number two and three, BPO and remitances, are the reasons why we are doing relatively well during this global financial/economic crisis. Those are no-brainers and have probably already been priced into the market.

Number one is what will shake things up. When demand for minerals increase, mineral rich countries like the Philippines have a great opportunity to make good money.

What does all this mean for common sense traders?
The languishing mining stocks will return to the new horizon. Before this global crisis, mining was under a spotlight. When the world pulls out of the recession and begins its recovery, I forsee a strong and steady increase in the value of local mining shares.
____________

Note though that PX is is oversold at its present nine-ish price. This is probably due to speculation over news of a new investor coming in.