Tsupitero, a technical analyst, said last March 10 that he'll only be bullish when we see the PSEi break 3333 at high volume. Sounds like a dream.
It's bear market. Technically, a bear market is a drop of 20% from the most recent high. The PSEi went up to around 3900 recently and is now moving around the 2900 level. That's over 25%. However, I think this is a good buying opportunity. Off the top of my head, here are a few reasons why:
1) Good fundamentals (i.e. strong private sector, tons of dollar reserves, lots of dollar earning economic activity, stronger peso, the list goes on!)
2) Political uncertainty is on the wane
3) The U.S. stock market isn't so bad as only the Nasdaq entered what is technically called a bear market.(CNBC) I mention U.S. stocks because for some reason, our market likes to follow theirs.
4) The U.S. FED is working hard at preventing a recession or at the very least, keeping its ill effects at a minimum. Investors the world over are worried that the U.S. will spark a global slowdown. I think that it's likely that it will but no one is forecasting a global recession. We'll still generally be seeing positive figures.
5) Investor are fearful over stocks causing many to become oversold! The trick is finding which ones these are.
I have many other reasons but I think my brain is much slower on Saturdays. I'll follow up on this. My gut feel, I can't fully say why, is that we'll see a strong bull run if we hit 2750. I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. If there's any more to put... hehe..
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Friday, March 14, 2008
annoying numbers when liquidity is low
I don't like looking at the market's numbers. I saw GEO at 1.14, Meg at 2.18, BPI at 51, BDO at 47 and MER at 80. I don't like them not because they are low but because they are low and I'm not as liquid as I want to be.
I'm still willing to bet on the Philippine economy and I think we're beginning to see some really excellent entry points for very good stocks.
I'm still willing to bet on the Philippine economy and I think we're beginning to see some really excellent entry points for very good stocks.
weary portfolios and a bleak outlook
If the market's trend is about to turn, there is no apparent sign of it. Philippine Stocks have been on a downward path since around November of last year. That was the time the harsh effects of the mortgage crisis were being seen in concrete figures.
Political Uncertainty & the Falling Dollar
Even after a banner year for our economy in 2007, our good fundamentals could not withstand the global financial market's jitters and caved in under the pressure. Early in the year, Philippine companies were reporting left and right about how much their profits increased. This news was eclipsed by Political uncertainty and the falling U.S. dollar. Politics brougth the infamous ZTE-NBN to light then the questionable north rail project, now the spratlys.
Higher Oil Prices
One of the greatest overall benefits of the falling dollar was that the relatively higher peso shielded us from feeling the effects of rising oil prices. Even that benefit however is being eroded as oil producing countries increase the pace of price increases to keep their economic position strong. Many of those countries peg their currency to the dollar and have hoardes of dollar reserves.
Ron Nathan believes that the U.S treasury is printing U.S. dollars like its monopoly money. As a child, I wondered often why countries didn't do that. Now we'll find out.
Political Uncertainty & the Falling Dollar
Even after a banner year for our economy in 2007, our good fundamentals could not withstand the global financial market's jitters and caved in under the pressure. Early in the year, Philippine companies were reporting left and right about how much their profits increased. This news was eclipsed by Political uncertainty and the falling U.S. dollar. Politics brougth the infamous ZTE-NBN to light then the questionable north rail project, now the spratlys.
Higher Oil Prices
One of the greatest overall benefits of the falling dollar was that the relatively higher peso shielded us from feeling the effects of rising oil prices. Even that benefit however is being eroded as oil producing countries increase the pace of price increases to keep their economic position strong. Many of those countries peg their currency to the dollar and have hoardes of dollar reserves.
Ron Nathan believes that the U.S treasury is printing U.S. dollars like its monopoly money. As a child, I wondered often why countries didn't do that. Now we'll find out.
did Arroyo sell out the spratlys? -i don't think so.
Let's call a spade a spade. The opposition is using words like "blunder", "sell-out", and even "treason" citing the 2005 tripartite agreement for seismic undertaking over the spratly islands with the Philipipnes, Vietnam and China. I think they are being too harsh this time.
While I'm not a big fan of the administration, I don't think its as bad as they say for the following reasons:
1) Joint agreements for exploration are not inherently bad. From an economic standpoint, they are good. Other countries have done it and have reaped handsome rewards. In our case, China is willing to "shelve" their claims on the spratlys and cooperate on how to exploit the resources and agree on the sharing later on.
2) Without considering legal issues and for the sake of argument, it is arguably a good policy to cooperate with China. Some say the sleeping giant has awoken. I don't think it has yet, and I think China's policies say so as well. At the moment, they are busy trying to gain a favorable image in the world and cooperation with countries like the Philippines help them get this better image. Lets work with them before they start throwing their weight around and while we still can.
3) A President cannot cede land. In the Philippnies, there is no doubt. The consitution is clear. China knows this, they won't try anything as absurd as asking our President to cede our land.
At a forum in U.P. diliman:
Dean Pangalangan of the U.P. College of law propounded the following objections with regard to the controverisal tripartite agreement:
1) Lack of transparency
2) Unconsitutionality (as it involves exploitation on natural resources)
Dean Baviera noted that it was obvious that diplomatic negotiations took place and the administration should be clear on what compromise the country entered into, what we got in return and where it went.
Finally, since this project has potential in helping our economy and Filipinos in general, I think we, as citizens should just dare our President to finish the job, get our share of the oil and show us the money! :)
While I'm not a big fan of the administration, I don't think its as bad as they say for the following reasons:
1) Joint agreements for exploration are not inherently bad. From an economic standpoint, they are good. Other countries have done it and have reaped handsome rewards. In our case, China is willing to "shelve" their claims on the spratlys and cooperate on how to exploit the resources and agree on the sharing later on.
2) Without considering legal issues and for the sake of argument, it is arguably a good policy to cooperate with China. Some say the sleeping giant has awoken. I don't think it has yet, and I think China's policies say so as well. At the moment, they are busy trying to gain a favorable image in the world and cooperation with countries like the Philippines help them get this better image. Lets work with them before they start throwing their weight around and while we still can.
3) A President cannot cede land. In the Philippnies, there is no doubt. The consitution is clear. China knows this, they won't try anything as absurd as asking our President to cede our land.
At a forum in U.P. diliman:
Dean Pangalangan of the U.P. College of law propounded the following objections with regard to the controverisal tripartite agreement:
1) Lack of transparency
2) Unconsitutionality (as it involves exploitation on natural resources)
Dean Baviera noted that it was obvious that diplomatic negotiations took place and the administration should be clear on what compromise the country entered into, what we got in return and where it went.
Finally, since this project has potential in helping our economy and Filipinos in general, I think we, as citizens should just dare our President to finish the job, get our share of the oil and show us the money! :)
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