According to stockerblog:
"Some interesting trivia about the Philippines:
1. It is the 12th largest country in the world by population.
2. It is ranked 25th by Gross Domestic Product by purchasing power parity
3. It was a founding member of the United Nations.
4. In 2005, the Philippine peso was considered to be Asia's best-performing currency, according the the CIA World Factbook.
5. Their economy grew at a rate of 5.4% in 2006.
6. Its two biggest trading partners are the U.S. and Japan.
7. It is a member of the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, the the International Monetary Fund, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, and the World Trade Organization.
8. More than 180 languages and dialects are spoken in the country."
This makes the Philippines sound so nice! Why, then, is our government such a mess?
Saturday, February 9, 2008
good news travels fast, bad news even faster
The R word
The overused word for the month of January is recession. Everyone talks about it because its rearing its ugly head in the U.S. and for better or for worse, what happens in the U.S. affects almost, if not, the whole world.
The debate is ending
The long and seeminlgy unending debate on whether the U.S. will head into a recession seems to be tipping in favor of a recession. That chilly word is all over CNBC and even Ron Nathan who has long been arguing that it isn't here yet nor is it coming seems to have modified that opinion a bit.
Good news in there, somewhere
The gloom and doom in his last article didn't sit too well with me so I prefer not to mention those points here. But I very much like that he ended by pointing out that:
"There are signs that the Philippine Stock Exchange index may be bottoming out. Foreign selling stopped last week after seven continuous weeks averaging nearly P1 billion a day. I suspect the pension funds are buying heavily, especially the Government Service Insurance System, which is investing P20 billion into the local market."
I understand that to mean we may be seeing less foreign selling, maybe even some foreign buying translating into upward market movement.
Incidentally, CNBC reported that the writer's strike is over. The famous blog: perezhilton quotes CNBC on that as well. Happy news. Funny I haven't heard it from anywhere else.
The overused word for the month of January is recession. Everyone talks about it because its rearing its ugly head in the U.S. and for better or for worse, what happens in the U.S. affects almost, if not, the whole world.
The debate is ending
The long and seeminlgy unending debate on whether the U.S. will head into a recession seems to be tipping in favor of a recession. That chilly word is all over CNBC and even Ron Nathan who has long been arguing that it isn't here yet nor is it coming seems to have modified that opinion a bit.
Good news in there, somewhere
The gloom and doom in his last article didn't sit too well with me so I prefer not to mention those points here. But I very much like that he ended by pointing out that:
"There are signs that the Philippine Stock Exchange index may be bottoming out. Foreign selling stopped last week after seven continuous weeks averaging nearly P1 billion a day. I suspect the pension funds are buying heavily, especially the Government Service Insurance System, which is investing P20 billion into the local market."
I understand that to mean we may be seeing less foreign selling, maybe even some foreign buying translating into upward market movement.
Incidentally, CNBC reported that the writer's strike is over. The famous blog: perezhilton quotes CNBC on that as well. Happy news. Funny I haven't heard it from anywhere else.
it never hurts to get advice (unless you ask the wrong people)
According to Wikipedia, Isaac Newton, the famous physicist, lost some of his money due to speculation in The South Sea Company stock in the 1720s. Isaac Newton lost over 20,000 pounds (£1.68 million in today's money) of his fortune. As a result of this crisis, he stated "I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people".
My friend who is a physics teachers believes that its possible to use the "turbulence theory" for forex trading. In response to that, I wrinkled my forehead and nodded as if I understood what he was saying.
I'm convinced that more pinoys should get into stocks. Specially the yuppies with disposable income or even students with spare cash, but never - ever without proper advice.
American Investors watch Warren Buffet, among others, and listen closely to what he says. Here in the Philippines, I don't know who would be his counterpart but I trust the opinion of Ron Nathan "The Bearbull" who writes a column for the inquirer. I also find a certain technical analyst named Miko S. Sayo of Tsupitero.com quite credible. For anyone already trading, looking to start out investing in Philippine Stocks, or would just like to be informed about those issues, I recommend reading their weekly publications.
Jules Verne, the famous writer, was a stock trader and broker at the Paris Stock Exchange (La Bourse de Paris). (wikipedia)
My friend who is a physics teachers believes that its possible to use the "turbulence theory" for forex trading. In response to that, I wrinkled my forehead and nodded as if I understood what he was saying.
I'm convinced that more pinoys should get into stocks. Specially the yuppies with disposable income or even students with spare cash, but never - ever without proper advice.
American Investors watch Warren Buffet, among others, and listen closely to what he says. Here in the Philippines, I don't know who would be his counterpart but I trust the opinion of Ron Nathan "The Bearbull" who writes a column for the inquirer. I also find a certain technical analyst named Miko S. Sayo of Tsupitero.com quite credible. For anyone already trading, looking to start out investing in Philippine Stocks, or would just like to be informed about those issues, I recommend reading their weekly publications.
Jules Verne, the famous writer, was a stock trader and broker at the Paris Stock Exchange (La Bourse de Paris). (wikipedia)
Friday, February 8, 2008
hollywoodish headlines eclipse trading; foreign interest in RP stocks wanes -businessworld
Hollywood-ish news
News of what happened to the Senate's witness on the NBN deal is dominating the clicks on inquirer.net. The Inquirer's front page told of a story that I think belongs in fiction. Lozada was intercepted at the airport even before he made it through the tube, taken by men and made to sign documents saying it wasn't an abduction. His hearing started around 10am today, and I've been following along through inquirer.net's running account.
Another sluggish trading day
The total trade value today was slightly less than yesterday, being just below the Php1.2 billion mark. Modest gains left the market at around 3241, up by about 17 points from yesterday.
Waning interestin RP stocks
Business world's headline for today says that: "Interest in RP stocks wanes" . The article highlighted some important statistics.
"THE STOCK MARKET got off to a shaky start this year, with net foreign selling hitting a record P11.59 billion as foreign investors exited emerging markets.
January’s net foreign selling eclipsed the previous high for a single month of P9.4 billion set in October 2003, the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) said in a statement. "
Where does that leave us
I remember a broker telling me sometime last year that foreign buying accounts for about half of the buying that happens in our exchange. If foreign buying is on the way out, that leaves a large gap to be filled by local investors. I'm not too worried about it though. Here's why:
1) I don't think foreign interest will be on the wane for the entire year.
2) For the time foreign buying is low, there remains a good opportunity for us local investors to build a better portfolio by adding into our positions and taking advantage of potentially great bargains.
3) Philippine fundamentals for both the private and public sector remain good.
4) The worries of the foreign investors have more to do with the Americans credit problems and weakening consumer spending rather than problems within the Philippines.
News of what happened to the Senate's witness on the NBN deal is dominating the clicks on inquirer.net. The Inquirer's front page told of a story that I think belongs in fiction. Lozada was intercepted at the airport even before he made it through the tube, taken by men and made to sign documents saying it wasn't an abduction. His hearing started around 10am today, and I've been following along through inquirer.net's running account.
Another sluggish trading day
The total trade value today was slightly less than yesterday, being just below the Php1.2 billion mark. Modest gains left the market at around 3241, up by about 17 points from yesterday.
Waning interestin RP stocks
Business world's headline for today says that: "Interest in RP stocks wanes" . The article highlighted some important statistics.
"THE STOCK MARKET got off to a shaky start this year, with net foreign selling hitting a record P11.59 billion as foreign investors exited emerging markets.
January’s net foreign selling eclipsed the previous high for a single month of P9.4 billion set in October 2003, the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) said in a statement. "
Where does that leave us
I remember a broker telling me sometime last year that foreign buying accounts for about half of the buying that happens in our exchange. If foreign buying is on the way out, that leaves a large gap to be filled by local investors. I'm not too worried about it though. Here's why:
1) I don't think foreign interest will be on the wane for the entire year.
2) For the time foreign buying is low, there remains a good opportunity for us local investors to build a better portfolio by adding into our positions and taking advantage of potentially great bargains.
3) Philippine fundamentals for both the private and public sector remain good.
4) The worries of the foreign investors have more to do with the Americans credit problems and weakening consumer spending rather than problems within the Philippines.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
what's more fun? futsal or trading stocks
a dumb answer for a dumb question: futsal while trading stocks.
If I had an iphone or something similar, I'd poke at stocks wherever I'm at. At school, at the mall, at church, ...hehe probably not at church, that's bad. ...and there's no trading on sunday. Its seriously addicting. Thanks to online brokers, the proliferation of wifi, cheaper mobile internet, it much easier to feed the addiction.
but if i really had to choose... futsal, in a hearbeat.
If I had an iphone or something similar, I'd poke at stocks wherever I'm at. At school, at the mall, at church, ...hehe probably not at church, that's bad. ...and there's no trading on sunday. Its seriously addicting. Thanks to online brokers, the proliferation of wifi, cheaper mobile internet, it much easier to feed the addiction.
but if i really had to choose... futsal, in a hearbeat.
why we should love corrections (seryosong usapan muna)
Generally unpleasant
Corrections are associated with unpleasant things. I remember when I first tried buying stocks. I did it with two unexperienced friends. We made our debut into Philippine stocks last year when the market was reaching new highs around the 3800 level. Shortly after, we saw a major correction in the Philippine Stock Market and watched the value of our new stocks plummet. We didn't like it. Luckily, we were patient, and since it was just a correction, the values returned to our entry levels and after a lot of waiting, rose a bit to give us our first taste of gains.
It can be a good thing
After almost a year of watching the stock market, talking to people about it and reading related material and news, I have a different view of corrections. I think it can be a good thing for various reasons, here are a few that I want to highlight:
1) It makes everyone cautious
2) It makes investors more discriminating
3) It reveals which stocks are quality stocks
4) It shakes off the careless and ill informed investors
5) It exposes the real value of stocks
6) It opens up buying opportunities
Caution
When markets rise day in and day out, investors can get careless. When prices drop, all that carelessness goes out the window. We then have an opportunity for everyone to pause and ask the important questions like why did prices drop? Will they keep going down?
Discriminating investors emerge
With investors asking important questions about the businesses that they own equity in, information begins to proliferate. Analysts keep working and churning out information useful in decision making. Investors in turn, swallow up the information ravenously. The result is a well informed investor community that becomes more discriminating in their choices.
Quality Stocks
Even when markets turn sour, there are still some stocks that go against the flow. When markets correct, we'll see which ones these are. Then we can study them and possibly end up adding good quality stocks to our portfolio.
Careless investors run away
When losses occur in the market, the immature investors who don't know what's happening and don't care to find out usually run for shelter. Often it is to everyone's benefit that they do. A careless investor community is not good- for themselves or the people in general. The chinese government is fearful because their citizenry is begging, borrowing and stealing, so to speak just, to invest in stocks. It may be because their bubble has been growing so fast and steadily that people have forgotten that money can be lost if they are not careful. Maybe a good correction is in order there. In the Philippines many uniformed consumers bought into equities via U.I.T.F.s and lost big time because they didn't understand how it worked. They'll know to stay away next time or return well informed.
Real value of stocks
As early as feb last year, we saw world markets being rocked by news of a brewing sub-prime mortgage credit crunch in the United States. For those, like me, who were unaware of its magnitude, that correction made me rather aware of it whether I wanted to be or not. Many investors were so bullish at that time that they believed we'd see the Philippines Stock Market's Index (a.k.a. Phisix/Psei)hit 5000 points in 2007. Yet, with a slowdown or a recession in the U.S. looming in the horizon, business projections the world over had to be adjusted. A well informed person will see all this before the correction, but the correction will let everyone in on it. Then the value of the stocks will return to levels closer to what they really are at.
Buying opportunities
When markets become oversold, bargains appear. Stocks become relatively cheap and people with ready capital get to pick and choose.
Corrections are associated with unpleasant things. I remember when I first tried buying stocks. I did it with two unexperienced friends. We made our debut into Philippine stocks last year when the market was reaching new highs around the 3800 level. Shortly after, we saw a major correction in the Philippine Stock Market and watched the value of our new stocks plummet. We didn't like it. Luckily, we were patient, and since it was just a correction, the values returned to our entry levels and after a lot of waiting, rose a bit to give us our first taste of gains.
It can be a good thing
After almost a year of watching the stock market, talking to people about it and reading related material and news, I have a different view of corrections. I think it can be a good thing for various reasons, here are a few that I want to highlight:
1) It makes everyone cautious
2) It makes investors more discriminating
3) It reveals which stocks are quality stocks
4) It shakes off the careless and ill informed investors
5) It exposes the real value of stocks
6) It opens up buying opportunities
Caution
When markets rise day in and day out, investors can get careless. When prices drop, all that carelessness goes out the window. We then have an opportunity for everyone to pause and ask the important questions like why did prices drop? Will they keep going down?
Discriminating investors emerge
With investors asking important questions about the businesses that they own equity in, information begins to proliferate. Analysts keep working and churning out information useful in decision making. Investors in turn, swallow up the information ravenously. The result is a well informed investor community that becomes more discriminating in their choices.
Quality Stocks
Even when markets turn sour, there are still some stocks that go against the flow. When markets correct, we'll see which ones these are. Then we can study them and possibly end up adding good quality stocks to our portfolio.
Careless investors run away
When losses occur in the market, the immature investors who don't know what's happening and don't care to find out usually run for shelter. Often it is to everyone's benefit that they do. A careless investor community is not good- for themselves or the people in general. The chinese government is fearful because their citizenry is begging, borrowing and stealing, so to speak just, to invest in stocks. It may be because their bubble has been growing so fast and steadily that people have forgotten that money can be lost if they are not careful. Maybe a good correction is in order there. In the Philippines many uniformed consumers bought into equities via U.I.T.F.s and lost big time because they didn't understand how it worked. They'll know to stay away next time or return well informed.
Real value of stocks
As early as feb last year, we saw world markets being rocked by news of a brewing sub-prime mortgage credit crunch in the United States. For those, like me, who were unaware of its magnitude, that correction made me rather aware of it whether I wanted to be or not. Many investors were so bullish at that time that they believed we'd see the Philippines Stock Market's Index (a.k.a. Phisix/Psei)hit 5000 points in 2007. Yet, with a slowdown or a recession in the U.S. looming in the horizon, business projections the world over had to be adjusted. A well informed person will see all this before the correction, but the correction will let everyone in on it. Then the value of the stocks will return to levels closer to what they really are at.
Buying opportunities
When markets become oversold, bargains appear. Stocks become relatively cheap and people with ready capital get to pick and choose.
sticky tikoy; sticky stocks
Today is the day the chinese celebrate the new year with such wonderous things as tikoy. Made from sticky rice, I like it best cooked with egg. Kung Hei Fat Choi!
The market barely moved today. With a volume of about Php1.2 billion pesos, the index went down by only 5.64 points sticking close to this lame level that I am beginning to dislike very much. *yawn. It's one of the more boring days for Philippines Stocks.
The market barely moved today. With a volume of about Php1.2 billion pesos, the index went down by only 5.64 points sticking close to this lame level that I am beginning to dislike very much. *yawn. It's one of the more boring days for Philippines Stocks.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
PSEi not so bad, down 54.72 @ low trading volume ; general outlook for the year still postive; gas rate to go down
Not too bad a day
Given the large drop in U.S. indeces, I think ours did ok. Trading ended today with the PSEi down by 54.72 points with total trade value at only the Php2.6B mark. Not much of a sell off. That tells me that there was a hopeful sentiment in the market amidst all the pessimism generated abroad.
It wasn't all bad as 26 stocks gained, 75 declined and 42 remained unchanged.
PSEi general outlook still good
Citisec, my favorite online trading company, told the inquirer today that their target for the year end is our index at 4200. It was initially targeted to be at that level by July. That means the outlook for the year is still good. But for someone like me, who feels like he's holding on to a battered portfolio, that seems like an awfully long way off. Nonetheless, considering the outlook of foreign markets, the prospect of positive growth for ours is enough to keep me from complaining.
Gas rates to go down!
The big three are to bring gas rates down by P.50. Much thanks, I believe, to the rising Philippine Peso.
Calling domestic heroes
We're supposed to hear a lot of corporate news this year about their performance. Where is that market moving news? Will we hear corporate news that will drive our market up? I've heard some news come out, and they've mostly been good. Profits, profits, profits. It seems more like a question of "how much?" rather than a question of whether there was any. The worst news I've heard so far isn't really bad at all. Some have reported profits lower than projected. But I have yet to hear about any major company that has profits lower than last year or that has negative income.
Some more recent notable earnings reports
Philex, a heavy favorite among mining companies, reported a 63% increase in profit. (PX closed today at Php9/sh up from Php8.80/sh yesterday)
RCBC, reported a 56% increase in net income. (RCB closed today @ Php18, unchanged from yesterday)
Given the large drop in U.S. indeces, I think ours did ok. Trading ended today with the PSEi down by 54.72 points with total trade value at only the Php2.6B mark. Not much of a sell off. That tells me that there was a hopeful sentiment in the market amidst all the pessimism generated abroad.
It wasn't all bad as 26 stocks gained, 75 declined and 42 remained unchanged.
PSEi general outlook still good
Citisec, my favorite online trading company, told the inquirer today that their target for the year end is our index at 4200. It was initially targeted to be at that level by July. That means the outlook for the year is still good. But for someone like me, who feels like he's holding on to a battered portfolio, that seems like an awfully long way off. Nonetheless, considering the outlook of foreign markets, the prospect of positive growth for ours is enough to keep me from complaining.
Gas rates to go down!
The big three are to bring gas rates down by P.50. Much thanks, I believe, to the rising Philippine Peso.
Calling domestic heroes
We're supposed to hear a lot of corporate news this year about their performance. Where is that market moving news? Will we hear corporate news that will drive our market up? I've heard some news come out, and they've mostly been good. Profits, profits, profits. It seems more like a question of "how much?" rather than a question of whether there was any. The worst news I've heard so far isn't really bad at all. Some have reported profits lower than projected. But I have yet to hear about any major company that has profits lower than last year or that has negative income.
Some more recent notable earnings reports
Philex, a heavy favorite among mining companies, reported a 63% increase in profit. (PX closed today at Php9/sh up from Php8.80/sh yesterday)
RCBC, reported a 56% increase in net income. (RCB closed today @ Php18, unchanged from yesterday)
More mixed headlines and a huge drop in the U.S. market
Mixed headlines from inquirer.net
"Top Stories
Higher food prices push up inflation
Gov’t eyes energy VAT rebate coupons
Arroyo orders implementation of power ‘open access’
Old ideas given new push at energy summit
Capital investments up 9.3% in ’07
Good weather seen boosting rice, corn production in Q1
NFA to issue P8B worth of bonds
Globe Telecom eyes local borrowing for capex
PAL earmarks P3.5B for wide-body fleet renovation
Wellex to develop 3,700-ha mine site in Surigao"
I doubt that there's enough happiness in there to translate into any big gains in our market today. In light of the drop in U.S. indices, today's trading is looking to be rather glim. I hope I'm wrong about this, but the pre-opening bids I looked at showed lower offers than bids! It looks like a big tumble is coming.
CNBC retorts that there's no super tuesday for stocks.
U.S. indices:
DJIA -370.03 (-2.93%)
Nasdaq -73.28 (-3.08%)
S&P500 -44.18 (-3.20%)
"Top Stories
Higher food prices push up inflation
Gov’t eyes energy VAT rebate coupons
Arroyo orders implementation of power ‘open access’
Old ideas given new push at energy summit
Capital investments up 9.3% in ’07
Good weather seen boosting rice, corn production in Q1
NFA to issue P8B worth of bonds
Globe Telecom eyes local borrowing for capex
PAL earmarks P3.5B for wide-body fleet renovation
Wellex to develop 3,700-ha mine site in Surigao"
I doubt that there's enough happiness in there to translate into any big gains in our market today. In light of the drop in U.S. indices, today's trading is looking to be rather glim. I hope I'm wrong about this, but the pre-opening bids I looked at showed lower offers than bids! It looks like a big tumble is coming.
CNBC retorts that there's no super tuesday for stocks.
U.S. indices:
DJIA -370.03 (-2.93%)
Nasdaq -73.28 (-3.08%)
S&P500 -44.18 (-3.20%)
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
ph stocks track U.S. stocks while the peso's outlook gets even sunnier, notwithstanding todays blip
Tracking the U.S. stocks
Prior to the trading hours at the Philippine Stock Exchange Tue (Feb. 5,2008), the DJIA was down 108.03 points, the Nasdaq down 30.51 points and the S&P down by 14.60 points. Then I watched how our market tracked the drop in U.S. prices. The Psei slipped about 39 points, ending around four straight days of increase. Gainers outnumbered losers 71 to 32 while 50 remained unchanged. I remember some people telling me that our market is immature and easily subject to rumors and the "hot tip." While I don't have any first hand knowledge of that, my theory that Philippine Investors are watching the U.S. market all the more closely these days and taking cues from it, above all else, seems to be getting more credible everyday.
Mixed business news
RCBC came in positive as "Net profit rose 56 percent to P3.21 billion from P2.05 billion in 2006. This beat the bank's net profit target of P2.5 billion." Inquirer.net (RCB closed @ 18.50/sh)
Globe shared its pessimism highlighting the strong peso, rising oil prices, and an economic slowdown in the US could as factors that could weaken consumer spending. Globe's numbers couldn't have been the source of their pessimism as "Globe reported after trading hours Monday a 13-percent increase in 2007 net profit to P13.3 billion on record revenue. It ended last year with 20.3 million cellphone subscribers, up 30 percent from 2006."inquirer.net
(Globe is a recommended buy both in the fundamental and technical analysis of Citisec. GLO closed @ p1600/sh)
Meralco: Our dear president was reported to be pushing for Meralco to be made to lower its rates. I had been doing some selling of MER lately and have been kicking myself until I read this. As of this morning citisec pointed out that MER has been outdoing the index over the past three months and is looking to do much better thanks to higher rates. As I don't like to underestimate the persuasiveness of our President, I think citisec should modify their recommendation. I recall one of my advisers telling me that Meralco has the public interest medling with it all the time, hence he believes it will never really be as profitable as ordinary private entities. (MER closed @ 81.50/sh)
Sunny Outlook for the Peso
The peso suffered a blip thanks to our entertaining world of politics. Yet, this has no reference to the long term outlook. Just yesterday, Citigroup was quoted as projecting the Peso to enter the thirties by hitting Php39 to a single greenback within this quarter. The same bank projects Php35 to $1 within the year. The peso closed today at 40.52.
This sunny outlook, casts shadows on our exports, BPO, OFWs and everyone who earns in dollars. Yet, today the BSP highlighted the silver lining. According the BSP, many Filipinos were better off thanks to the stronger peso. One very obvious thing is that with more buying power, we as a country were spared a bit from the steep increase in the world oil price. Carrying the logic further, Filipinos will benefit from cheaper imports.
Prior to the trading hours at the Philippine Stock Exchange Tue (Feb. 5,2008), the DJIA was down 108.03 points, the Nasdaq down 30.51 points and the S&P down by 14.60 points. Then I watched how our market tracked the drop in U.S. prices. The Psei slipped about 39 points, ending around four straight days of increase. Gainers outnumbered losers 71 to 32 while 50 remained unchanged. I remember some people telling me that our market is immature and easily subject to rumors and the "hot tip." While I don't have any first hand knowledge of that, my theory that Philippine Investors are watching the U.S. market all the more closely these days and taking cues from it, above all else, seems to be getting more credible everyday.
Mixed business news
RCBC came in positive as "Net profit rose 56 percent to P3.21 billion from P2.05 billion in 2006. This beat the bank's net profit target of P2.5 billion." Inquirer.net (RCB closed @ 18.50/sh)
Globe shared its pessimism highlighting the strong peso, rising oil prices, and an economic slowdown in the US could as factors that could weaken consumer spending. Globe's numbers couldn't have been the source of their pessimism as "Globe reported after trading hours Monday a 13-percent increase in 2007 net profit to P13.3 billion on record revenue. It ended last year with 20.3 million cellphone subscribers, up 30 percent from 2006."inquirer.net
(Globe is a recommended buy both in the fundamental and technical analysis of Citisec. GLO closed @ p1600/sh)
Meralco: Our dear president was reported to be pushing for Meralco to be made to lower its rates. I had been doing some selling of MER lately and have been kicking myself until I read this. As of this morning citisec pointed out that MER has been outdoing the index over the past three months and is looking to do much better thanks to higher rates. As I don't like to underestimate the persuasiveness of our President, I think citisec should modify their recommendation. I recall one of my advisers telling me that Meralco has the public interest medling with it all the time, hence he believes it will never really be as profitable as ordinary private entities. (MER closed @ 81.50/sh)
Sunny Outlook for the Peso
The peso suffered a blip thanks to our entertaining world of politics. Yet, this has no reference to the long term outlook. Just yesterday, Citigroup was quoted as projecting the Peso to enter the thirties by hitting Php39 to a single greenback within this quarter. The same bank projects Php35 to $1 within the year. The peso closed today at 40.52.
This sunny outlook, casts shadows on our exports, BPO, OFWs and everyone who earns in dollars. Yet, today the BSP highlighted the silver lining. According the BSP, many Filipinos were better off thanks to the stronger peso. One very obvious thing is that with more buying power, we as a country were spared a bit from the steep increase in the world oil price. Carrying the logic further, Filipinos will benefit from cheaper imports.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Will January dictate the pace our market for the year?
I've read that January is usually an indication of how the market will perform for the year. While it may look like that for the coming months, I hope that isn't the case for the entire year.
Psei
Our Philippine Stock Exchange Index, which everyone still calls the Phisix, went pretty low this month of January considering the highs it had hit last year. That leaves us now watching it consolidate between 2900 and 3900, but hanging closer to 2900 for the month. At that position, there's lot of us sitting in the sidelines, who entered while the market was at the 3400/3500 position wondering whether we should sell at that when it returns to that point.
With tons of good news on the local side, I'm more keen on waiting things out, save for some tiny trades here and there to pass the time.
Psei
Our Philippine Stock Exchange Index, which everyone still calls the Phisix, went pretty low this month of January considering the highs it had hit last year. That leaves us now watching it consolidate between 2900 and 3900, but hanging closer to 2900 for the month. At that position, there's lot of us sitting in the sidelines, who entered while the market was at the 3400/3500 position wondering whether we should sell at that when it returns to that point.
With tons of good news on the local side, I'm more keen on waiting things out, save for some tiny trades here and there to pass the time.
Earning's report to dictate market's pace -inquirer
I'm not so sure I agree with the Inquirer on that point. While, I see these reports to be a major factor, I think the whole world is still hung up on the woes from the U.S.
They way I see it is that reports below investor's expectations can drag share prices down, yet better than expected reports can only push prices up if the good mood in the U.S. markets coincides with it.
They way I see it is that reports below investor's expectations can drag share prices down, yet better than expected reports can only push prices up if the good mood in the U.S. markets coincides with it.
3175 : a number to watch this week -tsupitero.com
"I'll be damned if the market heads back down below its short-term support at 3175 this coming week. If it does, I would suggest to immediately sell your long positions as the market will be vulnerable to lower low."
quoted from Miko Sayo's weekly analysis of the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi a.k.a. Phisix) @ tsupitero.com
In addition to pointing out that important number, tsupitero also said that:
-the short term trend is now up
-whether the medium term trend has turned up is uncertain
-market is approaching resistances at 3400-3500
quoted from Miko Sayo's weekly analysis of the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi a.k.a. Phisix) @ tsupitero.com
In addition to pointing out that important number, tsupitero also said that:
-the short term trend is now up
-whether the medium term trend has turned up is uncertain
-market is approaching resistances at 3400-3500
Sunday, February 3, 2008
in the spotlight: U.S. Markets ;
Under the present circumstances, looking to the U.S. market for an indication of where our market will go seems like a better idea than before.
More predicatble market movements
If we know where people look, there's more chance we know what they are thinking. That is an advantage of the American Credit Crisis. Its potential to affect world economies has caused traders and investors the world over to watch the U.S. closely. Over the past week, it appears that world markets have been taking their cue from the U.S. Theoretically, this makes activity a bit more predictable.
The world hasn't decoupled
Mr. "Bearbull", Ron Nathan of the Philippine Daily Inquirer is among those who believe that the world has not decoupled from the U.S. Stock Markets. He mentioned it in his article published last 29th.
It appears that the world is united in believing that if the U.S. slows, the world will slow-albeit relatively less for the developing world.
Analysis
Applying this theory of mine, I noticed a headline on CNBC.com, referring to a good week in the U.S., that read: Stocks Have a Super Week
Therefore, I still think we'll see that downward pressure I blogged about before, at the start of the coming week. However, my overall sentiment is that there's a good chance that any slow and downward movement will be overshadowed by an overall rise in Philippine Stock prices next week.
More predicatble market movements
If we know where people look, there's more chance we know what they are thinking. That is an advantage of the American Credit Crisis. Its potential to affect world economies has caused traders and investors the world over to watch the U.S. closely. Over the past week, it appears that world markets have been taking their cue from the U.S. Theoretically, this makes activity a bit more predictable.
The world hasn't decoupled
Mr. "Bearbull", Ron Nathan of the Philippine Daily Inquirer is among those who believe that the world has not decoupled from the U.S. Stock Markets. He mentioned it in his article published last 29th.
It appears that the world is united in believing that if the U.S. slows, the world will slow-albeit relatively less for the developing world.
Analysis
Applying this theory of mine, I noticed a headline on CNBC.com, referring to a good week in the U.S., that read: Stocks Have a Super Week
Therefore, I still think we'll see that downward pressure I blogged about before, at the start of the coming week. However, my overall sentiment is that there's a good chance that any slow and downward movement will be overshadowed by an overall rise in Philippine Stock prices next week.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
