SECB: where did this all this come from

Around March this year (2010), SECB was hovering around the low 50s. Now, its parked itself in the low 60s, about 20% higher in just four months.

I was very happy watching the performance of this stock but am still a bit perplexed as to how and why it's beating the other banks. BPI for one has been a bit disappointing to me. Before the last recession wreaked havoc around the Globe, BPI was trading above 60. Now, it doesn't seem like it will return to the level any time soon.

There's a similar story for BDO. It's still significantly far from where it was before the global recession.

So what's with SECB? It appears that their loan growth has been strong and will continue to be very strong. Their current projection is 10%-15% loan growth in 2010.

My broker tells me that even a conservative estimate of less than 10% loan growth shows that SECB provides good value for the buyer even at a price of Php63.00.

place your bets!

place your bets!

"Place your bets!"

That's what Miko Sayo of Tsupitero.com says about the PSEi.

He said we're in some kind of no man's land because of the mixed signals of the market from a technical point of view.

Here's what I'm considering:

ICT (28.50)
ATI (5.3)
MWC (15.25)
SECB (63.00)


Here's a few reasons why:

I'm always partial to relying heavily on fundamental analysis and the fundamentals of these companies are very good.

I like companies that are engaged in businesses that are easy to understand.

ICT and ATI in particular because of the improvements in container traffic. If not for the recent trouble in the euro zone, I think these stocks would have hit the roof by now.

MWC because they enjoy a guaranteed rate of return as a utility company and the rainy season is coming. With el nino out of the way, MWC will be smiling.

SECB because they're numbers are just plain awesome.

Finally, i verified these picks with information from my broker. The most common sense tip of all: ask the experts. :)

cheers to the Philippines

After having a relatively uneventful and peaceful election, with a clear Presidential front runner, the Philippines has yet another thing to be very happy with.

7.3% GDP growth in 1Q2010.

Pretty cool. It was enough to bring a tiny rally even as the market was weak early yesterday.

spooky figures

The DOW is down 4% in 2010.

During the last session, DJIA fell 2.61%;
NASDAQ fell 2.99%;
S&P 500 fell 3.11%

CNBC reported a "brutal selloff".

The PSEi has a tendency to track the american market so we're likely to see another correction. What has my attention is the 10,000 point psychological mark in the DJIA. For a few moments before trading ended it fell below that level but quickly jumped back up to settle at 10,002.18 points.

If the DJIA doesn't hold above the psychological 10,000 point mark, I think there's a good chance it will spark a large correction in the three major indexes.

A large correction in the U.S. will probably spook the Philippine market into a sizable correction as well. After all, we've seen a rally that lasted around nine months already. As the saying goes what comes up, must go down.

Getting ripe for the picking

"Stocks post worst decline since August ’09" @ inquirer.net

It was reported that: Heavy selling cut 2.4% off key price index. The report used the word "bloodbath."

Miko Sayo of tsupitero.com says that Feb - Apr is normally ugly for the market. I guess this is a fitting start.

I wouldn't be surprised if the "ugly" Feb - Apr period extend a bit due to the May 2010 elections.

For those looking to start some long positions, the prices for entry are getting better. I wouldn't jump the gun yet, though. I'd wait for a no-brainer entry point.

2010, the year to buy

2009 saw a long rally of the stock market and yet it felt all too soon for me. So I sat on the sidelines and tried to put together a small stash of money from the bonuses I get from time to time. In hindsight, that decision seems to be getting better and better.

2010 seems like it will bring good buying opportunities for long positions.

Now, we have the real information with regard to the financial figures surrounding the recovery of the global economy at hand; and we also have the ability to think outside of the euphoric charm of the reversing recession


"Be fearful when everyone is greedy and be greedy when everyone is fearful" -Warren Buffet

I think the 2009 rally of the PSEi was a bit premature, i think people got greedy. Now, the numbers are in the red and it's spooking a few folks.

However, if we look at the fundamentals of Philippine companies, there are a lot of good ones out there. Now that the trend of the PSEi is a bit more sober, we'll have time to do some cherry picking.

Oh yeah, there's also an election coming. Local and national. That kind of political atmosphere always seems to bring stock prices lower.