Friday, May 9, 2008
unimpressive upward movement
The PSEi rose again today (May 9, 2007) by only 18.80 points with total trade value of about Php3.5B. I find this unimpressive and disappointing. Without a strong rally, I fear that this market will spook investors even more.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
MER stock price headed to the dog house
Notwithstanding the increase in 2008 1Q profits of MER, their price dipped from the Php80 level to Php69 in a couple of days.
Meralco is under attack by the GSIS. The folks over at the Government Security Insurance System say Meralco has been charging customers to compensate for their own inefficiency. It appears that they think they can undue what has been done or prevent any further similar action by legal process.
Not good for the stock price. This is true specially since Meralco has been under pressure from the administration to lower their rates.
However, if the GSIS can really do all that is another matter. I place my bet on MER and find this to be an opportune time to buy into this company at a bargain.
Meralco is under attack by the GSIS. The folks over at the Government Security Insurance System say Meralco has been charging customers to compensate for their own inefficiency. It appears that they think they can undue what has been done or prevent any further similar action by legal process.
Not good for the stock price. This is true specially since Meralco has been under pressure from the administration to lower their rates.
However, if the GSIS can really do all that is another matter. I place my bet on MER and find this to be an opportune time to buy into this company at a bargain.
where are the bulls?
The market may be bad, but I slept like a baby last night. I woke up every hour and cried.
The PSEi went up on May 7, 2008 by 11.73 points. Value turnover was at a respectable level of Php4B. Looks good, but not good enough, I think.
The fresh wind of hope from the U.S. economy didn't make it here until today as shown by the Philippine Stock Exchange Index. The rice shortage or at least the perception of a shortage along with inflation going through the roof are factors that weigh down on local investor sentiment. Corporate earnings are largely within expectation but maybe market is already priced into better corporate performance since it had little effect on our stock prices.
The PSEi went up on May 7, 2008 by 11.73 points. Value turnover was at a respectable level of Php4B. Looks good, but not good enough, I think.
The fresh wind of hope from the U.S. economy didn't make it here until today as shown by the Philippine Stock Exchange Index. The rice shortage or at least the perception of a shortage along with inflation going through the roof are factors that weigh down on local investor sentiment. Corporate earnings are largely within expectation but maybe market is already priced into better corporate performance since it had little effect on our stock prices.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
hitting the panic button
The numbers aren't looking good. Prices went down again today at a convincing volume of over Php4B.I think the numbers are forming a pattern that may induce more dumping of Philippine Stocks.
Projections for our index last year were being thrown in as high as the 10k level and more conservatively at the 4k level within 2007. We're a far cry for there and it looks like the market wants to move even further.
I remember the saying "buy cheap, sell high." I wonder if this is such a time that stocks are "cheap"? When that panic button is hit, who will stand to benefit more? Those who run for shelter or those who stay and keep hunting for bargains?
Projections for our index last year were being thrown in as high as the 10k level and more conservatively at the 4k level within 2007. We're a far cry for there and it looks like the market wants to move even further.
I remember the saying "buy cheap, sell high." I wonder if this is such a time that stocks are "cheap"? When that panic button is hit, who will stand to benefit more? Those who run for shelter or those who stay and keep hunting for bargains?
Monday, May 5, 2008
why didn't we follow wall street?
The consensus seemed to be that Wall Street was dragging the world down by spreading fear, the Philippines included. But with Wall Street climbing up, what we expected for the Philippine Stock Exchange Index did not happen.
The PSEi didn't rally. Are the prospects for the Philippine Economy really low? While the trend of the market seems to be going down, are our fundamentals really weak? Or are the bargains just getting better?
The PSEi didn't rally. Are the prospects for the Philippine Economy really low? While the trend of the market seems to be going down, are our fundamentals really weak? Or are the bargains just getting better?
Friday, April 25, 2008
hurray for some green lights :)
Although total trades were valued at only around Php2.5B, I'm glad to see the overall performance of the PSEi to be in the green. (PSEi +19.21 on April 24, 2008 @ 2,844.02)
The question on everybody's minds must be: Is the market bottoming out?
Technical Analysis probably won't give a definite answer at this point in time. However, my gut feel says the bottoming out is starting. Why? Well, first, the main mover of global markets is still the U.S. stock market. Second, there seems to be a growing concensus that the worst is over for U.S. lending giants. Third, one of the greatest drivers of investor anxiety were the large losses of American Banks. If its over, there will be sighs of relief all around.
While that isn't really air tight logic, neither is the logic of most investors. Given that, most market movement is based on similar thinking. Now, to see if I can scrounge around for more cash and bet on this bottom. :)
The question on everybody's minds must be: Is the market bottoming out?
Technical Analysis probably won't give a definite answer at this point in time. However, my gut feel says the bottoming out is starting. Why? Well, first, the main mover of global markets is still the U.S. stock market. Second, there seems to be a growing concensus that the worst is over for U.S. lending giants. Third, one of the greatest drivers of investor anxiety were the large losses of American Banks. If its over, there will be sighs of relief all around.
While that isn't really air tight logic, neither is the logic of most investors. Given that, most market movement is based on similar thinking. Now, to see if I can scrounge around for more cash and bet on this bottom. :)
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
little happiness over Philippine Stocks
Unexciting year
2008 has proved to be rather unexciting. Everyone is gloomy. Business is slowing down, oil is getting more expensive, and the dollar is falling. A more curious addition to the sad news is that food prices are going up.
Little upward movement
What I find very sad about our market's performance for 2008 is that even when all the good news of growing profits came in, our stocks tracked global markets and didn't really move up.
Foreign Influence
Domestic demand seems to be stable but since foreign buying accounts for about half of the activity in our stock market, there is still an umbilical cord to foreign markets. Generally, the world has been reacting to wall street and wall street's lead has been downard.
Unconventional Wisdom
Still, I remember my favorite quote from Warren Bufett: "Be greedy when everyone is fearful and be fearful when everyone is greedy". Follwoing that I'd still avoid investing in Philippine Real Estate and keep adding positions in Philippine stocks. If I could, I would even purchase U.S. Real Estate at foreclosure sales. :)
2008 has proved to be rather unexciting. Everyone is gloomy. Business is slowing down, oil is getting more expensive, and the dollar is falling. A more curious addition to the sad news is that food prices are going up.
Little upward movement
What I find very sad about our market's performance for 2008 is that even when all the good news of growing profits came in, our stocks tracked global markets and didn't really move up.
Foreign Influence
Domestic demand seems to be stable but since foreign buying accounts for about half of the activity in our stock market, there is still an umbilical cord to foreign markets. Generally, the world has been reacting to wall street and wall street's lead has been downard.
Unconventional Wisdom
Still, I remember my favorite quote from Warren Bufett: "Be greedy when everyone is fearful and be fearful when everyone is greedy". Follwoing that I'd still avoid investing in Philippine Real Estate and keep adding positions in Philippine stocks. If I could, I would even purchase U.S. Real Estate at foreclosure sales. :)
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