Tuesday, March 4, 2008

how long will the world let the dollar slide?

Falling dollar and advantage/disadvantage
Many countries like the Philippines arguably enjoy more advantages than disadvantages from the falling dollar, however that's not the case for everyone. It may not be long before there is a concerted effort to push the dollar up or at least pressure the U.S. to take some serious steps to shore up its dollar's value. After all, many states have not only invested heavily in U.S. T-bills but use the popular greenback as the currency for their reserves.

Oil pressure on economy
If that does happen, the Philippines and others may have to watch out. For the Philippines, one of the largest benefits is that the increase of the peso vs the dollar cushions the blow of the rising world oil prices. As it is the cost of the oil is weighing heavily on the economy and keeping our GDP growth from reaching higher levels. If the dollar rises again, there will be more pressure exerted by oil prices on our economy.

A weak dollar is preferred
My gut feel is that the U.S. shouldn't want a strong dollar at this point in time. U.S. industries need to look abroad for new markets since domestic demand is falling. A relatively weaker dollar will help boost sales to foreign markets. Its a strategy that China has benefited from tremendously. Although the U.S. has long been condemning it, they may find themselves gaining much from a similar strategy.

The question remains then, how long will the world let the dollar keep sliding?

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