Recession is really worrying Asia. The theory is that middle income emerging economies will join the economic problems of the U.S.
Is the Philippines included? The numbers seem to lean on a resounding yes. I think the fundamentals are different however.
As far as banking and real estate is concerned, I think the lessons learned back in 1997 are still clear. The industry players have adjusted so as not to let history repeat itself. Note also that we can probably still count on large remittances from our biggest export, labor. This will keep our foreign reserves strong. It is well to note that our OFWs send dollars because its convenient but if need be they can send a host of other currencies.
While certain agricultural exports will get weaker as U.S. based demand wanes, we're still seeing growing demand from other parts of the world. This logic may even be stretched to other areas of Philippine exports. While China and India have monopolized the spotlight as new and strong sources of demand, how about the Oil rich Arab nations? How will their ever increasing wealth affect the Philippines? That's a factor worth considering.
Things aren't too clear now and that's just it. I wouldn't bet against the Philippine economy just yet.
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