Saturday, March 15, 2008

calling out the bulls

Tsupitero, a technical analyst, said last March 10 that he'll only be bullish when we see the PSEi break 3333 at high volume. Sounds like a dream.

It's bear market. Technically, a bear market is a drop of 20% from the most recent high. The PSEi went up to around 3900 recently and is now moving around the 2900 level. That's over 25%. However, I think this is a good buying opportunity. Off the top of my head, here are a few reasons why:

1) Good fundamentals (i.e. strong private sector, tons of dollar reserves, lots of dollar earning economic activity, stronger peso, the list goes on!)
2) Political uncertainty is on the wane
3) The U.S. stock market isn't so bad as only the Nasdaq entered what is technically called a bear market.(CNBC) I mention U.S. stocks because for some reason, our market likes to follow theirs.
4) The U.S. FED is working hard at preventing a recession or at the very least, keeping its ill effects at a minimum. Investors the world over are worried that the U.S. will spark a global slowdown. I think that it's likely that it will but no one is forecasting a global recession. We'll still generally be seeing positive figures.
5) Investor are fearful over stocks causing many to become oversold! The trick is finding which ones these are.

I have many other reasons but I think my brain is much slower on Saturdays. I'll follow up on this. My gut feel, I can't fully say why, is that we'll see a strong bull run if we hit 2750. I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. If there's any more to put... hehe..

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