Tuesday, July 3, 2012

My pick for the moment: MWC

I don't like over thinking. Utilities are good business, period. Timing, though is important in trading so I like to consult with technical analysts. The resistance for MWC was pegged at 25. Since it broke above it today and closed at 25.3, I would recommend buying it first thing tomorrow if you haven't done that already.

I wouldn't worry about Europe

There's always a few major things that push world stocks up and down. What's in the spotlight now is the Eurozone. The doomsayers forecast the end of the Eurozone with Greece and Spain being the first two who will fall out. There are also grave fears of a default by Greece and Spain as well as by their banks. I wouldn't worry too much, though. I am happy that there are doomsayers even though I don't agree with them. I think they play an important part because the world needs to hear what they are predicting. Their dark words will play a part in preventing it. Europe and all those heavily invested i.e. Germany, will not sit idly by and let things go crazy. Those with interests to protect will move. CNBC analysis argues that only political union can solve the problems. For me its simple, if Eurozone is pulled apart, it makes no financial sense to anyone even Germany who has benefited so much from the Eurozone. Unless there's some unforeseen political problem, the powers that be will think with their pockets and the Eurozone will be preserved.

PSEi at 5000++

The Philippine Stock Index has been pushing to new heights this year and closed today (June 3, 2012) at 5300.14. Who would have known it would happen now. Two years ago I recommended the following: ICT (28.50) ATI (5.3) MWC (15.25) SECB (63.00) The same stocks closed today at the following prices: ICT (75) ATI (9.80) MWC (25.3) SECB (142.2) With perfect hindsight, this would have made anyone a pretty penny over two years. With ICT and SECB, one would have doubled his or her money easily. However, at the time I recommended it, I couldn't predict my picks would double over two years. In fact, I sold of my SECB once I gained 25%. I was happy enough with the gain. Yet, seeing it move even higher made me cringe. It's very easy to predict which stocks will eventually go up, it's just so hard to say when. Common sense trading is easier for those who have time on their side. Stocks move up, we just can't choose when. It's having the power and emotional tenacity to wait that will bring success.