copy cat bandwagon

The Philippine Stock Exchange took a few nose dives over the past months and spooked many people. I blame it all the doomsdayer's talk about the U.S. economy. Now that all that grim news has been squeezed out, people are welcoming the opinion that the worst is over. Is it? well I haven't really had the chance to find out for myself.

As far as the Philippines is concerned I think that we will follow the U.S. up if they do go up because I subscribe to the assumption that they're the only reason why we went down in the first place. Things here are going way to well for our market to keep plummeting.

A very reputable columnist, Ron Nathan of the inquirer doesn't seem to have made up his mind about it either but had this to say last sunday:

"Well, it's back to work tomorrow. BERNANKE has done everything expected of him. He cut the interbank rate, released $200 billion into the system, cut 75 basis points and gave JP Morgan $30 billion to bail out BEAR BULL. We can only sit back and hope that the price of oil comes down to $80 a barrel so that inflation will not become a serious problem. Some analysts think the worst is over so Wall Street has been rising and most other stock exchanges have played follow the leader. Foreign brokers have slashed their one-year price targets dramatically so my last list is hopelessly out of date."

playing it safe

I was once told that any person entering stocks should be ready to leave their money alone for at least ten years.

I understood that to mean that they would not really have to, but if they wanted to see real gains without too much risk exposure, time will be one of the main investments.

Being relatively new to trading stocks, I make it a point to play it safe by following on simple rule above all else.

1. Buy only stock from companies that are likely to grow over the long term.

However, if that's all i do, it's an extremely boring thing to do. I wanted to have fun while doing this so in addition, I tried this strategy without breaking the first rule:

2. Buy stocks that I think will rise significantly in the short term and sell quickly after they reach my target.


This made it more fun. Nice and challenging. Short term trading with a safety net. Its an inherently limited strategy but it keeps things safe for a newbie like me.

little time to check on stocks

I don't like it when I have little time to check up on the stock market. I have been having my final exams at my Law School over the past weeks. My time is monopolized as if by a jealous mistress.

While I have made a hobby out of trading stocks, I think that following the movements of the stock market on a daily basis, is one of the keys to successfully investing in the stock market.

It is a fickle entity, yet patterns emerge over time. If we are to learn the patterns, we have to be around to see them as they unfold.

i smell blood

There will be blood on the market if the short-term trend continues. I'm not much of a technical analyst but that much is easy to figure out.

Following the latest data on corporate performance, I'd say were going to see largely oversold stocks.

The old saying goes "buy when there's blood on the market." As we don't often see moments where its that bad, I think those of us who are liquid should count ourselves fortunate to have a good buying opportunity coming right around the corner.

For those hanging on to portfolio's in the redline, it will be agonizing. I think the key would be to keep emotions out of the decision making.

WSJ: Most Economists Say Recession Has Arrived as Outlook Darkens

Phil Izzo lat Thursday, March 13, 2008 talks about evidence of a recession.

"The U.S. has finally slid into recession, according to the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal economic-forecasting survey, a view that was reinforced by new data showing a sharp drop in retail sales last month." full text

A recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. I don't think this has happened yet. If I may venture a guess, I doubt that it will. That is at least as far as this year is concerned.The FED is too aggressive. Maybe next year the U.S. will see the recession, as defined.

a dose of the best medicine

"A long time ago, a visitor from out of town came to a tour in Manhattan. At the end of the tour they took him to the financial district. When they arrived to Battery Park the guide showed him some nice yachts anchoring there, and said, "Here are the yachts of our bankers and stockbrokers." "And where are the yachts of the investors?" asked the naive visitor." jokes.net

grapevine: New trading floor at the Fort; dodgy mining company

Heard only in the unofficial form:

Trading Floor
My grapevine tells of the construction of a new home for the Philippine Stock Exchange. What I've heard is that there will only be one floor to replace the two physically separate venues currently in Ortigas and Makati. The new venue will be at the Fort.

Mining Company
Also, there's been some talk of a new Mining company in the Philippines that is soliciting investments. I'm told that it seems dodgy and questionable. I don't even know what the name is. tsk tsk tsk.

Stock Dividends from BPI
I'm kicking myself for buying a few BPI shares at 63 last December. A few days ago, I was told that, as a consolation for me there's some good news to offset the loss. BPI is to dish out some stock dividends this April. Twenty percent (20%) they say. I sure hope its 20! Last I checked, BPI went on a long slide and was down to 51!