Most of my favorite stocks carry a similar pattern of lower highs and lower lows since around november last year. I can think of only a few that defied this pattern, but our experts remain upbeat for 2008.
Not one negative prediction for 2008 has been made yet so many are quick to warn about big drops within they coming weeks. Technical analysts talk of levels like 2700 as a possible scenario. In november last year such a level was thought by many to have been long gone. Now, its that sort of thinking that had to be thrown out the door and many are soberly staring at beaten up protfolios that have fallen far from glorious novemeber.
Call me crazy, but I still think this is a perfect time to build up a good portfolio based on a sound fundamental analysis.
Showing posts with label Philippine stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philippine stocks. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Saturday, February 9, 2008
good news travels fast, bad news even faster
The R word
The overused word for the month of January is recession. Everyone talks about it because its rearing its ugly head in the U.S. and for better or for worse, what happens in the U.S. affects almost, if not, the whole world.
The debate is ending
The long and seeminlgy unending debate on whether the U.S. will head into a recession seems to be tipping in favor of a recession. That chilly word is all over CNBC and even Ron Nathan who has long been arguing that it isn't here yet nor is it coming seems to have modified that opinion a bit.
Good news in there, somewhere
The gloom and doom in his last article didn't sit too well with me so I prefer not to mention those points here. But I very much like that he ended by pointing out that:
"There are signs that the Philippine Stock Exchange index may be bottoming out. Foreign selling stopped last week after seven continuous weeks averaging nearly P1 billion a day. I suspect the pension funds are buying heavily, especially the Government Service Insurance System, which is investing P20 billion into the local market."
I understand that to mean we may be seeing less foreign selling, maybe even some foreign buying translating into upward market movement.
Incidentally, CNBC reported that the writer's strike is over. The famous blog: perezhilton quotes CNBC on that as well. Happy news. Funny I haven't heard it from anywhere else.
The overused word for the month of January is recession. Everyone talks about it because its rearing its ugly head in the U.S. and for better or for worse, what happens in the U.S. affects almost, if not, the whole world.
The debate is ending
The long and seeminlgy unending debate on whether the U.S. will head into a recession seems to be tipping in favor of a recession. That chilly word is all over CNBC and even Ron Nathan who has long been arguing that it isn't here yet nor is it coming seems to have modified that opinion a bit.
Good news in there, somewhere
The gloom and doom in his last article didn't sit too well with me so I prefer not to mention those points here. But I very much like that he ended by pointing out that:
"There are signs that the Philippine Stock Exchange index may be bottoming out. Foreign selling stopped last week after seven continuous weeks averaging nearly P1 billion a day. I suspect the pension funds are buying heavily, especially the Government Service Insurance System, which is investing P20 billion into the local market."
I understand that to mean we may be seeing less foreign selling, maybe even some foreign buying translating into upward market movement.
Incidentally, CNBC reported that the writer's strike is over. The famous blog: perezhilton quotes CNBC on that as well. Happy news. Funny I haven't heard it from anywhere else.
Friday, February 8, 2008
hollywoodish headlines eclipse trading; foreign interest in RP stocks wanes -businessworld
Hollywood-ish news
News of what happened to the Senate's witness on the NBN deal is dominating the clicks on inquirer.net. The Inquirer's front page told of a story that I think belongs in fiction. Lozada was intercepted at the airport even before he made it through the tube, taken by men and made to sign documents saying it wasn't an abduction. His hearing started around 10am today, and I've been following along through inquirer.net's running account.
Another sluggish trading day
The total trade value today was slightly less than yesterday, being just below the Php1.2 billion mark. Modest gains left the market at around 3241, up by about 17 points from yesterday.
Waning interestin RP stocks
Business world's headline for today says that: "Interest in RP stocks wanes" . The article highlighted some important statistics.
"THE STOCK MARKET got off to a shaky start this year, with net foreign selling hitting a record P11.59 billion as foreign investors exited emerging markets.
January’s net foreign selling eclipsed the previous high for a single month of P9.4 billion set in October 2003, the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) said in a statement. "
Where does that leave us
I remember a broker telling me sometime last year that foreign buying accounts for about half of the buying that happens in our exchange. If foreign buying is on the way out, that leaves a large gap to be filled by local investors. I'm not too worried about it though. Here's why:
1) I don't think foreign interest will be on the wane for the entire year.
2) For the time foreign buying is low, there remains a good opportunity for us local investors to build a better portfolio by adding into our positions and taking advantage of potentially great bargains.
3) Philippine fundamentals for both the private and public sector remain good.
4) The worries of the foreign investors have more to do with the Americans credit problems and weakening consumer spending rather than problems within the Philippines.
News of what happened to the Senate's witness on the NBN deal is dominating the clicks on inquirer.net. The Inquirer's front page told of a story that I think belongs in fiction. Lozada was intercepted at the airport even before he made it through the tube, taken by men and made to sign documents saying it wasn't an abduction. His hearing started around 10am today, and I've been following along through inquirer.net's running account.
Another sluggish trading day
The total trade value today was slightly less than yesterday, being just below the Php1.2 billion mark. Modest gains left the market at around 3241, up by about 17 points from yesterday.
Waning interestin RP stocks
Business world's headline for today says that: "Interest in RP stocks wanes" . The article highlighted some important statistics.
"THE STOCK MARKET got off to a shaky start this year, with net foreign selling hitting a record P11.59 billion as foreign investors exited emerging markets.
January’s net foreign selling eclipsed the previous high for a single month of P9.4 billion set in October 2003, the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) said in a statement. "
Where does that leave us
I remember a broker telling me sometime last year that foreign buying accounts for about half of the buying that happens in our exchange. If foreign buying is on the way out, that leaves a large gap to be filled by local investors. I'm not too worried about it though. Here's why:
1) I don't think foreign interest will be on the wane for the entire year.
2) For the time foreign buying is low, there remains a good opportunity for us local investors to build a better portfolio by adding into our positions and taking advantage of potentially great bargains.
3) Philippine fundamentals for both the private and public sector remain good.
4) The worries of the foreign investors have more to do with the Americans credit problems and weakening consumer spending rather than problems within the Philippines.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
why we should love corrections (seryosong usapan muna)
Generally unpleasant
Corrections are associated with unpleasant things. I remember when I first tried buying stocks. I did it with two unexperienced friends. We made our debut into Philippine stocks last year when the market was reaching new highs around the 3800 level. Shortly after, we saw a major correction in the Philippine Stock Market and watched the value of our new stocks plummet. We didn't like it. Luckily, we were patient, and since it was just a correction, the values returned to our entry levels and after a lot of waiting, rose a bit to give us our first taste of gains.
It can be a good thing
After almost a year of watching the stock market, talking to people about it and reading related material and news, I have a different view of corrections. I think it can be a good thing for various reasons, here are a few that I want to highlight:
1) It makes everyone cautious
2) It makes investors more discriminating
3) It reveals which stocks are quality stocks
4) It shakes off the careless and ill informed investors
5) It exposes the real value of stocks
6) It opens up buying opportunities
Caution
When markets rise day in and day out, investors can get careless. When prices drop, all that carelessness goes out the window. We then have an opportunity for everyone to pause and ask the important questions like why did prices drop? Will they keep going down?
Discriminating investors emerge
With investors asking important questions about the businesses that they own equity in, information begins to proliferate. Analysts keep working and churning out information useful in decision making. Investors in turn, swallow up the information ravenously. The result is a well informed investor community that becomes more discriminating in their choices.
Quality Stocks
Even when markets turn sour, there are still some stocks that go against the flow. When markets correct, we'll see which ones these are. Then we can study them and possibly end up adding good quality stocks to our portfolio.
Careless investors run away
When losses occur in the market, the immature investors who don't know what's happening and don't care to find out usually run for shelter. Often it is to everyone's benefit that they do. A careless investor community is not good- for themselves or the people in general. The chinese government is fearful because their citizenry is begging, borrowing and stealing, so to speak just, to invest in stocks. It may be because their bubble has been growing so fast and steadily that people have forgotten that money can be lost if they are not careful. Maybe a good correction is in order there. In the Philippines many uniformed consumers bought into equities via U.I.T.F.s and lost big time because they didn't understand how it worked. They'll know to stay away next time or return well informed.
Real value of stocks
As early as feb last year, we saw world markets being rocked by news of a brewing sub-prime mortgage credit crunch in the United States. For those, like me, who were unaware of its magnitude, that correction made me rather aware of it whether I wanted to be or not. Many investors were so bullish at that time that they believed we'd see the Philippines Stock Market's Index (a.k.a. Phisix/Psei)hit 5000 points in 2007. Yet, with a slowdown or a recession in the U.S. looming in the horizon, business projections the world over had to be adjusted. A well informed person will see all this before the correction, but the correction will let everyone in on it. Then the value of the stocks will return to levels closer to what they really are at.
Buying opportunities
When markets become oversold, bargains appear. Stocks become relatively cheap and people with ready capital get to pick and choose.
Corrections are associated with unpleasant things. I remember when I first tried buying stocks. I did it with two unexperienced friends. We made our debut into Philippine stocks last year when the market was reaching new highs around the 3800 level. Shortly after, we saw a major correction in the Philippine Stock Market and watched the value of our new stocks plummet. We didn't like it. Luckily, we were patient, and since it was just a correction, the values returned to our entry levels and after a lot of waiting, rose a bit to give us our first taste of gains.
It can be a good thing
After almost a year of watching the stock market, talking to people about it and reading related material and news, I have a different view of corrections. I think it can be a good thing for various reasons, here are a few that I want to highlight:
1) It makes everyone cautious
2) It makes investors more discriminating
3) It reveals which stocks are quality stocks
4) It shakes off the careless and ill informed investors
5) It exposes the real value of stocks
6) It opens up buying opportunities
Caution
When markets rise day in and day out, investors can get careless. When prices drop, all that carelessness goes out the window. We then have an opportunity for everyone to pause and ask the important questions like why did prices drop? Will they keep going down?
Discriminating investors emerge
With investors asking important questions about the businesses that they own equity in, information begins to proliferate. Analysts keep working and churning out information useful in decision making. Investors in turn, swallow up the information ravenously. The result is a well informed investor community that becomes more discriminating in their choices.
Quality Stocks
Even when markets turn sour, there are still some stocks that go against the flow. When markets correct, we'll see which ones these are. Then we can study them and possibly end up adding good quality stocks to our portfolio.
Careless investors run away
When losses occur in the market, the immature investors who don't know what's happening and don't care to find out usually run for shelter. Often it is to everyone's benefit that they do. A careless investor community is not good- for themselves or the people in general. The chinese government is fearful because their citizenry is begging, borrowing and stealing, so to speak just, to invest in stocks. It may be because their bubble has been growing so fast and steadily that people have forgotten that money can be lost if they are not careful. Maybe a good correction is in order there. In the Philippines many uniformed consumers bought into equities via U.I.T.F.s and lost big time because they didn't understand how it worked. They'll know to stay away next time or return well informed.
Real value of stocks
As early as feb last year, we saw world markets being rocked by news of a brewing sub-prime mortgage credit crunch in the United States. For those, like me, who were unaware of its magnitude, that correction made me rather aware of it whether I wanted to be or not. Many investors were so bullish at that time that they believed we'd see the Philippines Stock Market's Index (a.k.a. Phisix/Psei)hit 5000 points in 2007. Yet, with a slowdown or a recession in the U.S. looming in the horizon, business projections the world over had to be adjusted. A well informed person will see all this before the correction, but the correction will let everyone in on it. Then the value of the stocks will return to levels closer to what they really are at.
Buying opportunities
When markets become oversold, bargains appear. Stocks become relatively cheap and people with ready capital get to pick and choose.
sticky tikoy; sticky stocks
Today is the day the chinese celebrate the new year with such wonderous things as tikoy. Made from sticky rice, I like it best cooked with egg. Kung Hei Fat Choi!
The market barely moved today. With a volume of about Php1.2 billion pesos, the index went down by only 5.64 points sticking close to this lame level that I am beginning to dislike very much. *yawn. It's one of the more boring days for Philippines Stocks.
The market barely moved today. With a volume of about Php1.2 billion pesos, the index went down by only 5.64 points sticking close to this lame level that I am beginning to dislike very much. *yawn. It's one of the more boring days for Philippines Stocks.
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