Most of my favorite stocks carry a similar pattern of lower highs and lower lows since around november last year. I can think of only a few that defied this pattern, but our experts remain upbeat for 2008.
Not one negative prediction for 2008 has been made yet so many are quick to warn about big drops within they coming weeks. Technical analysts talk of levels like 2700 as a possible scenario. In november last year such a level was thought by many to have been long gone. Now, its that sort of thinking that had to be thrown out the door and many are soberly staring at beaten up protfolios that have fallen far from glorious novemeber.
Call me crazy, but I still think this is a perfect time to build up a good portfolio based on a sound fundamental analysis.
Showing posts with label philippine stocks news. Show all posts
Showing posts with label philippine stocks news. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Thursday, February 14, 2008
indicia of market undervalue
When companies are buying back their own shares of stock on the exchange, it is, in general, a clear sign of stocks being undervalued by the market. That is now the case for us. It very well speaks for itself.
Company buybacks on the PSE
Companies have been buying back their shares on our bourse. To name a few, we have Filinvest Land Inc., Roxas Holdings, CADP group, PLDT, Chemrez Technologies, Vista Land and Lifescapes, Aboitiz disclosing buybacks and the list goes on.
Disclosures published at pse.com.ph
By simply perusing the website of the Philippine Stock Exchange, one will see many company disclosures of share buybacks.
A look at FLI
FLI had an IPO last year and the price of the shares was around PHP1.92ish on the day they were offered. In their disclosures they were buying the same shares back at around 1.08. That would mean they would net almost half of their IPO price and be left with the shares in their names. How brilliant.
A Devil's Advocate perspective
It is possible that behavior like this is calculated to keep stock prices from falling further and is no more than a strategy to boost the image of the shares. However, I'm more inclined to think that that's not the case this time around because of the scale of the buybacks in terms of the number of companies doing it and the number of shares they are buying back. Assuming for sake of argument that it is no more than a mere strategy to encourage higher market valuation, companies will not risk buying back large amounts at overvalued levels. So at the very least, we'll know that the prices are at a reasonable level. That is, at the very least, even with an devil's advocate perspective.
Something to watch out for
I think behavior like this is, in this case, a good indicator that the stocks value is higher than where the market is pricing it at. Over the next few days, I want to watch for more similar activity.
Company buybacks on the PSE
Companies have been buying back their shares on our bourse. To name a few, we have Filinvest Land Inc., Roxas Holdings, CADP group, PLDT, Chemrez Technologies, Vista Land and Lifescapes, Aboitiz disclosing buybacks and the list goes on.
Disclosures published at pse.com.ph
By simply perusing the website of the Philippine Stock Exchange, one will see many company disclosures of share buybacks.
A look at FLI
FLI had an IPO last year and the price of the shares was around PHP1.92ish on the day they were offered. In their disclosures they were buying the same shares back at around 1.08. That would mean they would net almost half of their IPO price and be left with the shares in their names. How brilliant.
A Devil's Advocate perspective
It is possible that behavior like this is calculated to keep stock prices from falling further and is no more than a strategy to boost the image of the shares. However, I'm more inclined to think that that's not the case this time around because of the scale of the buybacks in terms of the number of companies doing it and the number of shares they are buying back. Assuming for sake of argument that it is no more than a mere strategy to encourage higher market valuation, companies will not risk buying back large amounts at overvalued levels. So at the very least, we'll know that the prices are at a reasonable level. That is, at the very least, even with an devil's advocate perspective.
Something to watch out for
I think behavior like this is, in this case, a good indicator that the stocks value is higher than where the market is pricing it at. Over the next few days, I want to watch for more similar activity.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
good news travels fast, bad news even faster
The R word
The overused word for the month of January is recession. Everyone talks about it because its rearing its ugly head in the U.S. and for better or for worse, what happens in the U.S. affects almost, if not, the whole world.
The debate is ending
The long and seeminlgy unending debate on whether the U.S. will head into a recession seems to be tipping in favor of a recession. That chilly word is all over CNBC and even Ron Nathan who has long been arguing that it isn't here yet nor is it coming seems to have modified that opinion a bit.
Good news in there, somewhere
The gloom and doom in his last article didn't sit too well with me so I prefer not to mention those points here. But I very much like that he ended by pointing out that:
"There are signs that the Philippine Stock Exchange index may be bottoming out. Foreign selling stopped last week after seven continuous weeks averaging nearly P1 billion a day. I suspect the pension funds are buying heavily, especially the Government Service Insurance System, which is investing P20 billion into the local market."
I understand that to mean we may be seeing less foreign selling, maybe even some foreign buying translating into upward market movement.
Incidentally, CNBC reported that the writer's strike is over. The famous blog: perezhilton quotes CNBC on that as well. Happy news. Funny I haven't heard it from anywhere else.
The overused word for the month of January is recession. Everyone talks about it because its rearing its ugly head in the U.S. and for better or for worse, what happens in the U.S. affects almost, if not, the whole world.
The debate is ending
The long and seeminlgy unending debate on whether the U.S. will head into a recession seems to be tipping in favor of a recession. That chilly word is all over CNBC and even Ron Nathan who has long been arguing that it isn't here yet nor is it coming seems to have modified that opinion a bit.
Good news in there, somewhere
The gloom and doom in his last article didn't sit too well with me so I prefer not to mention those points here. But I very much like that he ended by pointing out that:
"There are signs that the Philippine Stock Exchange index may be bottoming out. Foreign selling stopped last week after seven continuous weeks averaging nearly P1 billion a day. I suspect the pension funds are buying heavily, especially the Government Service Insurance System, which is investing P20 billion into the local market."
I understand that to mean we may be seeing less foreign selling, maybe even some foreign buying translating into upward market movement.
Incidentally, CNBC reported that the writer's strike is over. The famous blog: perezhilton quotes CNBC on that as well. Happy news. Funny I haven't heard it from anywhere else.
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