Is the U.S. economy in recession? If it is will the Philipines follow?

I don't think the U.S. is in recession, I am almost certain. Even if it was, I don't think the Philippines would follow, with that I am absolutely certain.

Whenever U.S. stocks suffer, its almost a sure thing that Philippine stocks will suffer also. The movement of U.S. stocks serve as one of many indicators of where our stock market will go. Yet, I don't think that the same is true with the economy.

On the first point, I will have to paraphrase Ron Nathan of the Inquirer. The definition of a recession that he follows is two succeeding quarters of negative GDP growth. To this date, we haven't seen any shrinking in U.S. GDP.

As for the Philippines, I don't see us joining any possible recession for the following reasons:

1. Strong fundamentals
2. Growing trade relations with neighbors
3. Growing BPO businesses beyond call centers
4. Growing amount of remittances

Even the average person can see for himself that things are still going well for the Philippines. For one thing, consumers are swallowing up goods like its christmas all year round. Our streets are littered with brand new cars. There's lots of talk of smuggled luxury cars on the news. That means people have deep enough pockets to buy these fancy cars. Our mushrooming malls are always packed.

If there's any trouble looming in the horizon, I would say it is in Philippine Real Estate, but thats very far away if it is at all and a separate topic altogether.